Good Saturday everyone and thanks for making us one of your stops for weather. We continue to follow the progress of a slow moving and massive storm system impacting the area over the next several days. This bad boy is likely to bring something for everyone before it wraps up by the middle of the week.
The deeper and slower moving models are winning the blinking battle and this means we have a big time precipitation maker on the way.
A huge dip in the jet stream is working into the Mississippi Valley today and will put the brakes on as it moves our way. There is a ton of energy that is forecast to cutoff across the Tennessee Valley by late Sunday into Monday. This will open the floodgates to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rain increasing tonight into Sunday.
The GFS shows the cutoff well… but may be a tad too quick with ejecting it northeastward through the Ohio Valley…
There will be some very cold air right under the core of that upper level low and that is where we will see rain changing to snow. Whenever that core passes over your head… chances are you will see the rain switch to a period of snow. When that happens is open for discussion and I think the GFS may be a bit too fast with the low.
Some thoughts…
– Heavy rain will work across western Kentucky later today and work eastward overnight. Temps ahead of the rain will warm into the 60s with a gusty southwest wind.
– Heavy rain will be likely from Sunday into Monday, at least. Rain totals of 1″-2″ with locally higher amounts will be possible.
– Depending on exactly when the upper level low moves in… there can be a switch to snow across the west and south later Monday. That switch would then work northeast with the upper low. Again… I can’t tell you exactly when this happens where you live. This is what the GFS “thinks” will happen…
– The slower this low is… the greater the chance for high water concerns.
– Winds will be gusty through mid week.
– Temps next week will be colder than normal with another system working in by the end of the week into next weekend.
As you would expect… I will have many more updates today and through the weekend. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.
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It should be noted that the late night models like the European, Canadian and 6z NAM all look very much like the GFS from above. The Euro does have the chance for accumulating snows from southwest to northeast starting late Monday into Tuesday.
WOW…talk about anti-climatic, lol !! I have a feeling we are all going to be frustrated with SEVERAL near misses this upcoming winter. kentucky and Moses have a great deal in common…somethimg about a Red Sea and parting?? Ha. Have a wet wkend all.
It ain’t over till the computer system that produces the GFS.. Breaks down. lol
Just what we need, more heavy rain. My place just dried out from last week. And cold rain at that. My least favorite thing. Not holding my hopes up for seeing any flakes.
Hey all. Chris has his winter forcast up at his other site. http://www.weather.bloginky.com
Good story about the November 1950 storm on Jackson’s website.
This will be frustrating if Tenn/Ark area gets several inches of wet snow, while a cold rain holds over most of KY! Some models area showing that. I hope for the sake of KY snow lovers it doesn’t play out that way????