Good Monday evening to one and all. Rain, fog and possible severe storms are combining to make the beginning of the travel period rather ugly. Something else that may make travel ugly is a storm threat for the weekend and early next week.

The models have been honing in on a mega closed upper level low that takes on a rather extreme look by Sunday and Monday. All of the available models show something similar to what the new European Model has…



That would be a rain to snow producer across our region and is one that has a shot to become a significant event somewhere in the Ohio Valley. It is way to early to tell where that will be or if it will even happen.

This is a setup that fits some of my analog years I am using for the winter forecast. I have made no bones about my thoughts on a big change to winter toward the end of November into early December. I even highlighted this period as one that can produce a winter storm somewhere across the eastern half of the country.

The upper low should be in no big hurry to leave us and would likely stick around into the middle of next week with the potential for more wintry weather. This looks to be the start of a winter pattern around here.

This one should be fun to watch.

Have a great rest of your evening and take care.