Good evening, everyone. Our calm and chilly weekend continues as we get ready for a much more active setup once into next week. That’s likely setting the stage for some more winter action before November is through and this same pattern may hold into December.

A couple of weak systems are diving in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to some light precipitation across the region and that could be a touch of rain and snow shower action.



Those are trying to look clipperish and we will need to watch to see if one of them is a little stronger than advertised.

The models continue to change with each run on how they’re handling the end of next week into the following weekend. We’ve talked about this for days now because this is a very energetic pattern with blocking setting up. That’s a combo to give the models fits.

We do know one system moves in by Thursday and Friday, likely with rain ending with the chance for some Friday flakes. Another system will try to follow that up next weekend. Here’s how the last run of the Euro handles this setup…

The details will change from run to run, but we will soon be getting into the ‘watching trends’ time frame.

I mentioned the blocking setting up and it’s looking fairly stout as we get deeper into the second half of November. The Euro is showing this to begin Thanksgiving week…

Notice that big positive up the west coast… That argues for a very deep trough in the east and you can see how that’s just showing up at the end of that run. Throw in some energy coming from the southwest and things could get fun.

The European Ensembles have a blocky look through the start of December…

Winter cometh early this year, but we’ve already seen that firsthand!

I will have a full update later tonight, so check back. Make it a great one and take care.