Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to the flood threat coming Sunday and Sunday night. Rounds of heavy rain and strong storms look to target the region, bringing the potential for flooding and flash flooding.
Here’s my early look at the area of greatest concern…
Obviously, that can change a bit as we see where the heaviest corridor of rain sets up on Sunday, but the general trend isn’t a good one.
The model forecasts are concerning and have 4″+ amounts showing up, but disagree a bit on where…
Canadian
GFS
ICON
That’s ugly, especially given the fact we just had significant issues a few weeks ago and we are running way above normal on rain this fall and early winter.
Colder air rushes in by Monday, putting an end to the heavy rainfall. From there, backlash snow showers and flurries will be possible into New Year’s Eve.
Another storm system rolls our way from the southwest by Thursday and Friday. If that is a rain maker, things could go from bad to worse in terms of high water issues.
I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm then with another KWC update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
Take it to the bank! It will be a rainmaker. The forecast doesn’t even have high temps below 40 for the next two weeks. Gotta love mud season!
Rodger’s “winter enthusiasm” is waning. There’s no major cold forecasted as far as the eye can see. Looks like a serious dud winter for most of us. This is Rodger in Dodger.
New KY candy hitting the market this winter. Rain Duds!!
More like, Snow Duds 😉
CB is having to try and make lemonade out of plastic lemons. Did not expect this to be like the past two years, but based on the outlooks, you have to do some serious cherry picking to even try to consider getting hopes up.
We are not even getting the fake news snows that show up and then drift away, a few days out.
I think this is the new normal for the Ohio Valley.
Unfortunately, Rodger agrees with you.
There will be nothing from the north west to push the southwest = rain.
Rain duds!
Not so fast. I’m seeing an impressive shot of cold air trying to invade at least the northern US at the time frame of January 5-ish. How far south that gets or if that modifies significantly has yet TBD.
Gloom, despair, and agony on me…… Winter literally just began 6 days ago folks and there isn’t a single person here who doesn’t know that traditionally, our best chances of snow happen between mid Jan through mid March. Give it time.
Very true, Troy! I’ve seen it snow large amts in early Nov(1966..I’d just turned 4…)as well as some in December through the 60/70/80’s, but most of the time, you got your ‘school snow days’ from Jan-Mar. I agree that while the winters have been rather sucky in recent years, it doesn’t mean that it’s going to be that way every single winter. Mama Nature is a fickle sort, we just have to live with her!
Repeat of 2019 winter….the rain train.
Come on now folks, you know we have some models coming that will show “potential “ snow about 3 wks out from the actual event, to get all snowlovers hopes up hahahaha
I would take the last two days of weather and happily call it a winter. We get some decent snows in February and March, but temp wise now is the stretch to get snows that lay on the ground. The southern part of the state crosses the 50 degree mark for average highs starting in mid-February. We had a small window of cold last year that only lasted about three or four days. Winter has changed.
The Euro weeklies have above normal temperatures on average continuing in the eastern US well into February. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a few cold days and even snow thrown in somewhere, but in general there are no signs of a prolonged winter pattern settling in. Of greater concern right now is the flood potential as winter wears on. The models over the next 10 days have 3-5+ inches of rain into the Ohio Valley, with potentially more after that 10 day period. The pattern is mimicking a La Nina pattern nicely.
LOL…told you the dry in the OV wasn’t correct a few days ago. You had the warm part right though. I see nothing next week that will be frozen but I am not always correct either.
Well, no one is “dry” per say, but north-central and western KY are running nice deficients for the month. That will change after the Sunday rain event. But even with below normal precip for the month thus far in these locations, there is still standing water in places, so significant rainfall will produce a lot of runoff (typical in winter, anyways).
Winter has just begun blah blah how we never say the same about summer summer always shows up before it actually gets here two things that I’ve read on here one it appeared to be the snowiest December since 2010 that was a headline here the last few days of November second one looks like old man winter is gonna make a return the beginning of January I’m not seeing that either this winter is almost a carbon copy of last winter so far hope something changes but I wouldn’t put much stock in the proverbial one to two weeks out
Don’t forget the three day polar vortex that is going to drop down sometime in January. We made it to a whopping ten degrees during it last year. Used to it was just called winter, but since there is no snow to report we have to hype up lows flirting with single digits.
TRUTH!
So much for old man winter
Troy and are lucky we received two small snows so far. I am barely (1/4 inch to be exact) above last season which was the very worst of my lifetime in Harlan. It looks dreadful for at least next 10 days. Hopefully, we get something late Jan and/or Feb as many areas, including Knox Co, are running behind last year while rest of us are about the same as last year, so far that is inti the season.