Good Sunday to one and all. The wind is the star attraction of the weather show again today with heavy rain waiting in the wings. This is the start of a very active next few weeks around here that features some big temp swings.

High winds may end up causing some issues across the state. Gusts can approach 50mph at times before the day is over and that is impressive considering we don’t have some deepening low pressure on top of us.

Winds


Keep in mind those are NOT wind gusts.

Clouds will continue to thicken up across the region today as our temps warm back into the 60s. A shower or two will develop as we head into the afternoon and evening hours and you can follow those here:



A cold front will work toward the region as we head into Tuesday. A couple of waves of low pressure will develop along this front and roll northeastward through Wednesday. The second of the lows will end up being the stronger of the two and that should bring heavy rains into town Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Rain totals of 1″-2″ look likely with locally higher amounts possible. Here’s how the GFS sees the rainfall:



As the low passes to our northeast on Wednesday… a blast of cold air will move in. This looks like the coldest shot of air, so far. The European Model agrees:



The GFS Temp Forecast for the same time:



There is a chance the cold catches the back side of the departing rain shield on Wednesday. That’s something to watch for.

Our cold shot was not showing up on the most of the models a few days ago. This is what I have been preaching lately… pattern recognition over models! This is not the year to go hog wild on what a model shows beyond 3 or 4 days away… especially with the current pattern.

Temps will rebound next weekend and likely go above normal for a few days. Sensing a pattern here? That should carry us into early Thanksgiving week before another storm rolls through with another shot of cold.

Let’s really go out on a limb here… watch the last week of November into the first week of December. That’s a period catching my eye for a possible big winter storm somewhere in the eastern half of the country. I’m just trying to read the pattern and hoping it doesn’t lie to me.

Have a great Sunday and take care.