Good Monday everyone. Mother nature gave us a fantastic weekend and that nice weather is carrying over to the first few days of this week. Our temps will then take a big tumble as much colder air moves into the region later this week. All of this is part of the slow transition toward winter.

There isn’t much that can be said about the weather of today and Tuesday. Both days will feature more of the good stuff with some sunshine and mild temps. Highs in the mid and upper 60s today will warm to near 70 by Tuesday.

Winds will pick up on Tuesday as a big storm works from the plains into the western Great Lakes. This will cause a nasty outbreak of severe weather over the next few days for the plains states. Some of this MAY creep into western Kentucky late Tuesday as a cold front swings in.

Showers and thunderstorms will be along and ahead of this boundary and these will head east on Wednesday. It continues to look like this action will weaken the farther east it gets across the region as most of the energy goes by to our west and northwest.

As the front swings through… much colder air will quickly move in for Thursday and Friday. The European Model continues to be my model of choice…



As you can see, that is a nice shot of cold air for Thursday and Friday. You will also notice how the model continues to show the storm in the Atlantic being entrained into the trough across the northeast. That is something the GFS model is STILL not fully seeing and one of the reasons it’s not as cold as the European and the rest of the models.

That shot of cold will only hang around into the start of the weekend before our temps shoot back up on a southwesterly wind. That is ahead of another storm for early next week as the pattern kicks it up a notch. We are likely to see several large storms working across the country over the next few weeks and it’s all part of the progression into an early start to winter.

Blocking is forecast to start showing up and this is a good wintry signal for the end of the month into December. You can see these signals on the day 10 height anomalies from the European Ensembles…



The western part of the country is off and running with a VERY early start to winter. The good news is they aren’t being greedy and will share it with the rest of the nation a little ways down the road.

Have a great Monday and take care.