Good Saturday and welcome to March! The start of Meteorological Spring is off and running on a cold note as northwest winds do some work on our temps. Once into the new week, we are on severe storms watch as a potent storm system rolls our way from the west.

Temps today and Sunday are much colder than normal on a strong northwest flow. This takes our wind chills into the teens from this evening through Sunday morning. Skies are dry with a mix of sun and clouds. That sky takes us into Monday as temps start to climb.

In terms of the severe threat and possible high winds, here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

  • A STRONG low pressure develops in the Plains early Tuesday then strengthens as it works into the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
  • This track puts parts of our region and points south in the severe weather risk area
  • The greatest severe storms threat comes from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
  • Waves of strong to severe storms will be possible during this time.
  • All modes of severe weather are possible. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
  • The greatest threat may be across western and southern parts of the state, but that can easily change over the next few days.
  • There’s also a window for another round of strong or severe storms Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
  • Damaging winds with this setup are also possible and that’s with or without thunderstorms. 50mph-60mph gusts may show up.
  • Thermometers crash Wednesday night with a good shot at light snow and snow showers for Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center will update this map to show the general severe storms threat for Tuesday and Tuesday night…

Once we get this to within day 3, we will see the typical Severe Weather Outlook showing up from the Storm Prediction Center.

The forecast models have been cranking out some serious wind potential…

This will be followed up by another low that takes a farther south track later next week into the following weekend. Some winter weather is possible with that.

Looking at the pattern from the middle of March through the middle of April, I expect things to remain very active with multiple severe weather threats during this time. The EURO Weeklies continue to like the potential for ridging across the east…

Normal to slightly above normal temps would be the result of that type of a pattern.

I’ll drop by for another update or two later today. Until then, have a great first day of March and take care.