Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s another REALLY warm March day across Kentucky as we continue focus on a big storm system this weekend. That is likely to bring strong to severe storms, high winds and heavy rains.
Between now and then, it’s flat out deep springtime with highs well into the 70s. Local 80 degree temps will be possible today and again on Friday. There’s a slight chance for a shower or storm going up late tonight into Thursday as a weak system pushes through.
Here’s a quick breakdown of how things may play out for the weekend:
FRIDAY
- Temps surge into the 75-80 degree range under mostly sunny skies.
- Winds crank from the southwest with gusts reaching 30mph-40mph by late in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT
- Lines of strong to severe storms rumble into western Kentucky late Friday evening.
- That line of storms then pushes eastward across the state through Saturday morning.
- The greatest threat for severe storms is across western and parts of central Kentucky.
- With or without storms, wind gusts of 50mph or greater will be higher.
SATURDAY
- Our cold front moves into western Kentucky and slows down.
- Low pressure develops along this to our southwest and rides northeastward along it.
- This brings the potential for rounds of strong to severe storms to central and eastern Kentucky especially.
- With or without storms, winds may gust to 50mph or greater at times.
- These storms may also be big rainmakers in streaks. That can lead to local high-water issues for some.
Here’s a look at how all that looks on the EURO…
Check out all the lightning from the different rounds of storms…
Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run of the EURO…
The GFS and Canadian Models are heavier and centered a bit east…
The GFS is the most robust model in terms of the wind potential from the Saturday storms, especially in the east and southeast. Those are some serious gusts…
Colorado State University has developed a severe weather outlook based on machine learning. Here’s what it’s showing for Friday…
The probabilities really jump for Saturday…
As far as the Storm Prediction Center is concerned, Friday is now within the typical 3 day outlook. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Friday…
The Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday…
I’ll have another update later today. Until then, make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
The jet stream forecast for late Saturday early Sunday shows a +115kt flow positioned over west and west-central Kentucky, which could lead to amplification and increased shear. However,chances for a severe outbreak in southern Kentucky really depend on whether a flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture is maintained, and there’s a real chance that supercell development in the deep south could interrupt that flow. Too early to tell.