Good Saturday to one and all. The heat is on across the Commonwealth this weekend, but the toast temps will have to share the stage with a few clusters of thunderstorms. All of this is ahead of a big time pattern change showing up later next week. That may put a little mid-September feel in our lives.
Temps today largely range from the upper 80s to near 95. A few showers and storms will pop up through the day with the greatest threat across the central and east.
Thunderstorms blowing up to our northwest this evening and tonight will have to be watched as they can easily dive into the state tonight. There’s a much better chance for these to show up on Sunday and the models are picking up on this…
Any storm that goes up tonight or Sunday may be strong or even, locally, severe. Here’s the Sunday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
These storms will also be loaded with lightning and torrential rains that can cause local high-water issues.
Hurricane Erin continues to churn in the Atlantic and is in the process of becoming a monster storm…
This continues to track well off the east coast of the United States, thankfully. Here’s the latest information and track forecast from the National Hurricane Forecast…
Erin stays out to sea as we watch a trough swinging in with some showers and storms from late Tuesday into Wednesday. There’s a chance this system gets cut off and hangs around for a few days as temps come day down.
The Canadian is likely the slower moving system that could keep scattered showers and storms going through the start of next weekend…
The trend continues for a deeper trough to dive in behind all this next weekend into early the following week. The Canadian sees this well…
The EURO AI and EURO were the first models to sniff this out and they continue that trend all the way through the closing days of the month…
EURO AI
EURO
The GFS is all kinds of confused right now, but that happens when the model is having all kinds of issues in the tropics.
I leave you with your storm tracking toys for the day…
Make it sensational Saturday and take care.
Late September heat incoming.
The heating days are about over
Could’ve knocked me over with a feather there. 🙂
We may have a few Breaks in the Heat, but I wouldn’t be Surprised to see Above Normal Temperatures this coming Fall and Winter. The Weather Patterns anymore are Not like it was back in 1976 to 1978. The Year of the Blizzard, January 1978.
Doesn’t mean we won’t have a few Snowy Days, so don’t get upset Snow Lovers.
The August ENSO forecast is out, stating that ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the Sep to Jan 2025-26, then reverting to ENSO-neutral.
ENSO / La Nina with a negative PDO means a Mild Winter. ENSO / neutral with a positive PDO means a Cold Winter.
ENSO / weak El Nino years with a negative EPO, negative AO, and negative NAO gives our area the most Snows, because the Storm Track most of the Winter is to our South.