Good Saturday to one and all. Our weekend is off and running on a nice weather note with some clouds rolling in from the west. These clouds are ahead of the first of two systems set to impact our weather in the next week. The second system is the main show into the middle of next week.
Clouds are thickening out there today with highs generally in the upper 50s and low 60s. There’s still the slightest chance for a shower or some sprinkles this evening.
A better shot for showers rolls in from west to east across the state later Sunday into Monday as low pressure passes to our south. That means the greatest concentration of rain is across the southern half of the state during this time.
The next system is a much stronger one and it’s giving the models fits in trying to figure out where it goes and how it behaves. This likely impacts our weather Tuesday through Thursday with rain, wind and chilly temps.
The steadiest models have been the EURO and EURO AI…
EURO
EURO AI
These models have been pretty consistent in spitting out another 1″-3″ of rain before Halloween…
As mentioned, the other models have been all over the place with the Canadian and GFS having the biggest issues. The Canadian is figuring it out with the low spinning across our region with a second low popping just to our east…
The GFS has shown some massive shifts that no model should EVER have and it continues to be lost in the woods, though you can see it trying to figure things out in its own way…
The ICON has a healthy system for our region and is on the farther north track. This animation shows the surface lows and the upper-level system together…
One of the things the making the models crazy is the interaction of the systems in the east with such a powerful hurricane slowly rolling across the Caribbean. Melissa will be a category 4 storm, at least, with a prolonged hit on Jamaica before moving toward the eastern half of Cuba. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
Looking into the first week of November, the EURO continues with a bit of a winter looking trough in the east…
I’ll update everything later today. Have a great Saturday and take care.
