Daily Archives: February 3, 2012

European Model Says Hello Winter

Good Friday evening everyone. The weekend is here and it’s starting off on a great note. That doesn’t hold up very long as rain increases tonight into Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday. It’s a cold rain that may even lead to a few snowflakes mixing in on Sunday,

The big weather news of the day comes from the European Model as it goes bonkers with the pattern for later next week and beyond. It basically says the indices I have been showing you over the past week have been sniffing something out.

The blocking across the northern latitudes goes wild and forces the polar vortex southward into the eastern half of the country. You can see this on the 500mb Height Anomaly average for days 6-10…

Now THAT is a classic look and could mean some wicked winter weather for the eastern US. Have you guys been keeping up with the what’s going on in Europe? If not… this model says you should. They went from mild to historic wild with a similar flip.

Here’s the evolution on it all from this same model…

Wow… check out that arctic air surging in from the northwest. Here’s how it looks on the following day…

IF this model is correct… and it’s a big IF this winter… then it will lead to some extreme weather for a lot of people.

Let’s see if it holds in the coming days. Enjoy your evening and take care.

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A Not So “Super” Weekend

Good Friday everyone and welcome to Super Bowl Weekend. The weather we have out there today will get things started off on a very nice note. The rest of the weekend turns soggy and chilly as a big low pressure works toward the region from the west.

High temps today will warm well into the 50s once again. Clouds will slowly be on the increase and will thicken up quickly during the afternoon and evening from west to east. Rain will also pick up overnight and will become widespread into Saturday. Locally heavy rains are a good bet into, at least, early Super Bowl Sunday.

Take a look at the weekend totals from the GFS…

It shows the heaviest rain falling across the southern half of the area with lighter amounts the farther north you live. Still… that’s a chilly and dreary Saturday on tap with highs only in the low and mid 40s at best.

This is the same storm bringing a blizzard to parts of the Rockies and plains states. Areas from Denver to Omaha may pick up a foot or two (or more) of snow from this crippling storm. Jealous yet?

This storm has a chance to be a little stronger than the models are showing for our region. This was the case a few days ago and a few of the runs are coming back around to this being able to tap a bit of cold air before the weekend is over. The GFS Ensembles are leading the charge with this…

It’s still not a big deal in terms of wintry weather… but that would have the chance to end this stuff with a touch of a mix. The Canadian is very similar, so we shall see. Either way… the weekend isn’t looking very pretty.

A peek into next week finds the models trying to show a trough digging in across the eastern half of the country. There is plenty of blocking showing up in the northern latitudes… but I am not digging the overall placement of these blocks. They are off just a bit from the classic look I like to see for cold and snow in this area. We will see if they can get their act together over the next few weeks.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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