Daily Archives: December 11, 2012

Time posted: 7:58 pm

Tuesday Evening Thoughts

Good Tuesday evening. We’re slowly clearing things out across central and eastern Kentucky this evening. Our day was filled with clouds, stray flurries and temps barely getting above freezing. The weather over the next few days still looks very good, but my attention is firmly focused on the weekend and next week.

We have one system moving in this weekend that will bring rain to our region. Temps will also drop behind this area of low pressure working through the region.

That sets the stage for a bigger storm to form early next week to our southwest. There continues to be a huge signal for this event and the models are getting on board. Check out the last 3 runs of the GFS for next Tuesday…

6z

12z

18z

That’s a week from right now and you can’t look at placement and precipitation because that will change with each run of every model. The point there is a storm on the models and the overall pattern favors a significant winter storm developing during this time. What, if any, impact it has on our weather remains to be seen. This is just further illustration of how much the pattern has changed.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 3:17 am

Where Do We Go From Here?

Good Tuesday everyone. It’s an honest to goodness cold day out there across Kentucky with temps in the 30s and some morning flurries for some. We’ve finally kicked the warm pattern on outta town and replaced it with a seasonal brand of chill. So, where do we go from here? Let’s talk about that.

The short term part of the program will find a lot of clouds around the state early today and you may see a few flurries. The clouds may be very stubborn today and that’s something to watch for. Readings will be in the 30s for highs and feel even colder than that with a gusty wind blowing.

Wednesday through Friday looks pretty calm and quiet. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to low 40s and warm well into the 40s for Thursday and Friday with a 50 possible. Lows through the period will be in the upper 20s.

That brings us to the weekend and our next system moving in. An area of low pressure will work eastward into the region. Rain will overspread the state Saturday into early Sunday. That’s when cold air settles in from the northwest and our temps drop into the 30s by the end of the day. The GFS actually looks ok with this solution…

The low across the northern Ohio Valley will try to transfer energy to a coastal storm. That helps deepen the trough over us and gives us the chance for a change to light snow late Sunday into Sunday night.

There is likely to be a follow up storm diving into the lower Mississippi Valley early next week. Any storm that forms next week may deepen and be a very slow mover because it would be running into a road block. That comes in the form of a massive block across eastern Canada and Greenland…

That setup has been well advertised on the models for some time now. The European Model has been all over this for a while now and continues to show a monster setup…

Even the GFS has the idea of a big storm, but is too far southeast with it…

This is a pattern that is going to try to produce some big storms every 3 or 4 days through Christmas week. Let’s sit back and behave ourselves and maybe Santa will reward us! 😉

Have a great day and take care.

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