Daily Archives: November 4, 2016

Time posted: 2:50 am

A Taste Of Normal For A Bit

Good Friday, folks. We’re coming off of an incredibly warm pattern to begin November, so some normal numbers are long overdue. As a matter of fact, there has been nothing even close to normal about this fall. From the dry conditions to the toasty temps, it’s just another way of our weather showing off extreme tendencies.

Temperatures today will range from the mid and high 50s across much of central and eastern Kentucky to the upper 50s to low 60s in the south and west. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with a gusty northerly wind.

Clear skies tonight will set the stage for many thermometers to drop into the 30s. Some fog may try to form, and that could keep a few areas closer to 40ish.

The weekend weather looks great with highs in the 60s across central and eastern Kentucky with some low 70s possible in the west.

The weather for the middle and end of the week will be dictated by a potential upper level low working into the region. The timing on this is up for grabs, but the slower trend seems to be a real thing at the moment. Watch how this big upper level low spins across Kentucky, then helps unleash the much anticipated colder setup…

gfs

If we can get that potent of an upper low to form, some decent rainfall would be a good bet. However, I’m not very confident in that feature at the moment.

The end of the above run fits the pattern I’ve been yapping about. The GFS ensembles have a cold look as we get into the middle of the month…

gfs

Again, I want to stress this change starts in week two of the month, then kicks into high gear for the second half of November.

The new weekly run from the JMA continues to pick up on this change to a deepening trough…

jma-1The above maps show the blocking going up along the west coast and trying to hook up with blocks across Greenland and the arctic. If that pattern can lock in, look out.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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