Daily Archives: November 7, 2016

Time posted: 7:32 pm

Monday Evening Musings

Good evening, gang. The forest fire situation across the state continues to worsen, and the only thing that can truly help is rain. Fortunately, we have some in the forecast over the next few days. Unfortunately, it’s not a whole lot. From there, the pattern continues to flip toward an early start to winter.

Showers will increase late Election Day and carry us into Wednesday morning. The greatest threat for rain is across the central and east. A few models show more than a quarter of an inch of needed rain…

gfs-rain

That would certainly help the fire situation out, but likely won’t be enough to fully take care of the problem.

Chilly temps coming in behind this front may keep parts of eastern Kentucky in the upper 40s for highs on Wednesday. Low 50s look good for the rest of the state.

50s will be with us Thursday and Friday as we watch a stronger push of cold diving in from the northwest. The models are coming a bit farther west with the trajectory of the cold…

canadian

That’s getting awfully close to putting down a snow flurry across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. Lows this weekend will be in the 20s with Saturday highs in the low and mid 40s for many.

A system next week needs to be watched for the potential of some winter weather across the Ohio Valley…

euro-2

How about serving up some cold Turkey this Thanksgiving week? Brr…

gfs-temps-2

Those numbers are well, well, well below normal!

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Here Come The Changes

Good Monday to one and all. The second week of November is getting underway and so are the changes we’ve been advertising for the past several weeks. Week two of November was slated as the transition week, with more of a winter looking pattern taking shape for the second half of November.

The first hint of change comes late Election Day into Wednesday. That’s when a system drops in from the northwest, bringing showers and a quick shot of chilly temps…

canadian

That could bring some decent rains across central and eastern Kentucky, and that would go a long way in helping the forest fire situation in the east.

Highs on Wednesday could be close to 50 for some areas.

The next shot of cold invades Friday night and Saturday, and will bring the coldest air we’ve seen…

canadian-2

That should deliver lows in the 20s for the weekend, with Saturday highs likely in the 40s. Can it bring a snowflake? The odds are low unless the angle of the cold shifts farther west to establish a flow off Lake Michigan.

The pattern relaxes a few days after that, but the next amplification is likely to occur farther west and be a major one. Here’s the Canadian…

canadian-3

The European Model has a monster system…

euro-4

euro-3

That’s a wicked look!

The signals continue to point toward that winter pattern getting more established across the country. The upper levels on the GFS show some significant blocking, leading to some potential fun and game in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…

gfs-temps-4

There are some extreme options on the table over the next month or so.

I will see you later today for another update. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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