Daily Archives: November 18, 2016

Time posted: 8:07 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our cold front is rolling across western Kentucky and is brining the big change toward a taste of winter for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms can be on the strong side in the west, but should weaken some as they head east. That said, some of them can tap some very high winds.

Track away…

The new GFS has the cold trying to catch up to the back edge of that rain shield by Saturday morning, and switching some of that over to snow…

gfs-2

That’s an interesting race to watch for in the morning. Temps just above the surface are going to be well below freezing, so flakes will fly at the surface with temps in the mid and upper 30s.

The wrap around snowflakes show up very well on the 4km NAM…

nam

Wind chills will be a big player Saturday night into early Sunday. The NAM has wind chills in the low and mid teens for some…

nam

I will look into next week and beyond with my update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Hold On For The Ride

Good Friday to one and all. We have one heck of a weather ride blowing across the bluegrass state today and Saturday. It’s a ride that may take us from record highs to a few snowflakes over the next 24 hours. Buckle up, my weather weenie friends. 🙂

Before we get into that, don’t forget about this…

And then there’s this…

Tonight will be a fun one, and I hope you will tune in on WKYT and on the WKYT Facebook page for some unplugged winter talk.

I have no changes on the evolution of the weekend forecast. Here’s a breakdown:

-Highs today will be deep into the 70s with a local 80 a possibility. Record highs will likely fall.

-Winds will be super gusty and could reach 30-40mph today through Saturday. This doesn’t bode well for the forest fire situation, so please abide by all burning restrictions.

-A cold front zips from west to east this evening into the overnight. Gusty showers will accompany this front and should be able to put down better than a quarter of an inch for many.

-Temps by Saturday morning will be dropping into the mid and upper 30s with light rain showers trying to mix with some wet flakes. Northwesterly winds will then kick in, leading to the potential for some snowflakes across central and eastern Kentucky…

gfs-2

-That’s nothing more than some novelty flakes showing up, and some won’t even see those. If you want some accumulations, go to the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania…

gfs-3

-Highs for Saturday and Sunday will generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder. As a matter of fact, wind chills Saturday night could drop deep into the low and mid teens at times. Actual air temps may also hit the upper teens by Monday morning.

Another system will zip in here by Wednesday and Thanksgiving with some showers developing. That’s actually very good news for the parched areas of our region. Temps look seasonal during this time.

The Ensembles continue to show a major block taking hold across Canada and up into the Arctic for the final days of November…

gfs-temps-4

Here’s what that looks like on the hemispheric scale…

gfs-temps-2

That showing very low heights across the United states and suggests a cold and very active setup for much of the country.

By early December, the Ensembles forecast the greatest height anomalies across the entire Northern Hemisphere to be right on top of the good old USA…

gfs-temps-3That’s impressive and is a complete flip of the pattern we’ve been stuck in for the past  3 or 4 months. If mother nature is going to try to balance out the weather force… then look out.

I will shoot you another update later today. Until then, take the interactive radar for a trip into the blizzard across the upper Midwest. You can even pull up live storm chase video streams…

Have a great Friday and take care.

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