Monthly Archives: September 2017

Time posted: 1:01 am

Tracking A More Active Pattern

Good Monday, everyone. Steamy temps continue to hang tough across the region for a few more days. Blah, blah, blah. Hang in there, cooler weather is on the way later this week, as our overall weather pattern starts to become more active.

So, we keep summer through the first half of the week, then a fall cold front brings some of the good stuff into town. The first front arrives late Wednesday, but may only be able to spit out isolated showers and storms.

A second system then digs in later Friday into early Saturday, bringing a chill to the air…

I can’t rule out a shower or two with that second system. That can give us a day in the 60s, with the potential for a few spots to sneak into the upper 30s by Sunday morning… If skies are clear.

A more potent system looks to follow that up by Monday and Tuesday. This one drops in from the northwest and tries to hook up with some kind of disturbance in the Gulf or off the southeastern coast. Here’s the European Model…

The GFS is just a little different, but has the overall theme…

The GFS continues to show a rather high amplitude pattern through the next few weeks…

It’s also the time of year to check on the snow maps across North America. The GFS Ensembles shows much of Canada and the Rockies getting flakes, but also has some falling in the northeastern part of the country…

It’s now time for your daily update on Hurricane Maria. This massive storm continues to spin just off the southeastern coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The track on this is likely to get closer enough to North Carolina to bring a decent impact…

cone graphic

Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:49 am

Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Summer continues to work a littler overtime, but fall is ready to fight back in the week ahead. We have a big time fall cold front ready to sweep through by the middle of the week, ushering in much cooler air.

There’s nothing cool about the weather out there today with highs deep into the mid and upper 80s. Just like the past several days, isolated showers and storms may go up…

The warm stuff hangs tough through Monday and Tuesday, then a cold front makes a run at us. That front should have a broken band of showers and storms along and ahead of it. This does not look like very much rain at all, but the chilly temps follow into the weekend…

Hurricane Maria continues so slowly churn between the Bahamas and Bermuda…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

I’m worried that Maria will get close enough to the North Carolina coast to cause some issues. The latest NHC track shows the cone of uncertanity extending westward…

cone graphic

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:30 am

Summer Temps Start Fall

Good Saturday, everyone. The first full day of fall is starting out with summer temps putting in some overtime work. This brand of steamy air will then carry us through the first half of next week, before some big changes blow in here as fall fights back.

First off, let me say thanks for all the comments with the last post. Your reward will be a preliminary winter outlook coming in the first few weeks of October. The main winter forecast will then follow in November. 🙂

Highs today are deep into the 80s for most areas with a muggy feel to the atmosphere. I still can’t rule out isolated showers and storms going up…

The same forecast will carry us through Sunday and into early next week.

Hurricane Maria continues to slowly work northward just east of the Caribbean…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The latest 5 day track keeps this well offshore, but we will need to watch for a westward bend in the track by the middle of the week…

cone graphic

A fall cold front arrives in Kentucky on Wednesday. Winds will be gusty with a broken band of showers and storms sweeping in from the northwest. Recent model runs are split on whether or now we get another disturbance to rounds the base of the trough, developing another storm system over the weekend.

Earlier runs of the GFS had this…

The most recent run had the colder air overwhelming the low…

Check out Hurricane Maria on both runs. Notice how the latest run has it threatening North Carolina.

Regardless, a true fall chill will be in the air. Here’s the GFS…

The European agrees…

Make it a good Saturday and take care.

37 Comments

Time posted: 1:35 am

Thoughts On The Road Ahead

Good Friday, folks. While we enjoy a period of toasty temps to start fall, I wanted to look a little deeper down the weather road. From a big change coming next week, to the upcoming fall and winter months, this update has you covered.

You guys ready? 🙂

Today features more of the same with temps in the muggy 80s and the chance for a stray shower or storm…

This pattern persists through the weekend into the first few days of next week. During this time, Hurricane Maria continues to barrel across the Caribbean, but the storm continues to look like a miss for the east coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

A big time fall cold front arrives in here by later Wednesday and Thursday. This front will have a band of showers and storms along and ahead of it, and a big push of chilly air behind hit. The recent trend on the models is for a system to swing through the base of our trough, spawning low pressure and some chilly rains around here…

If that system is real, it may take away the frost threat, but keep those temps very chilly during the days…

I actually prefer the secondary system developing, because they can often be a precursor to the early winter pattern.

Speaking of winter. I’ve already been hard at work compiling data for the winter forecast that comes out in November. I’m toying with the idea of putting out a preliminary forecast in early October. What do you guys think of that? The more responses, the better the chance I do it. 😉

While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.

The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January…

 

That model would make for a very fun winter around here!

The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December…

I promised you some winter talk and I delivered. Now, if you guys want that preliminary winter forecast in early October… You had better leave some comments telling me you do. 🙂 I have a magic number of comments in my head. If we get there, you will get that prelim winter outlook in a few weeks.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

187 Comments

Time posted: 1:01 am

Chilly Changes Late Next Week

Good Thursday, folks. We continue with our string of toasty late summer days, but a chilly change is on the way as we head into next week. The timing on this is perfect as we flip the calendar from September to October. Let’s do this, fall!

Highs today are in the low and middle 80s for many, with just a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm going up…

The forecast for Friday through the weekend remains pretty much the same. It’s toasty, with a pop up shower or storm going up.

Hurricane Maria continues to plow through the Caribbean…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

This is another historic hurricane that may wind up threatening the Carolinas by early next week. Here’s the latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Jose continues to meander off the northeastern coast, weakening over colder waters…

cone graphic

A much colder look takes shape for the second half of next week as a fall cold front arrives in our region. This front may have a nice round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, but the chilly air coming in behind it will steal the weather show.

As I’ve been talking about for the past several weeks, the potential is there for an early season frost across our part of the world. This type of a cold shot could certainly do the trick…

Make it a great day and take care.

 

21 Comments