Daily Archives: October 3, 2017

Time posted: 7:32 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the potential for a tropical system to form in the Gulf and impact our late weekend weather.

This is something we’ve talked about for a few days now, and the models are picking up on the potential.

The setup will feature a cold front working toward the state by Saturday. At the same time, a tropical system is likely cranking in the Gulf of Mexico. That front would then pick up the named storm and bring it northward toward Kentucky.

The GFS shows this system moving right on top of Kentucky…

The Canadian looks very similar…

The European Model has been struggling of late because of such a deep trough across the west. This is the one big flaw with the model, as it is usually too slow with ejecting these systems eastward.

The European Model never gets the trough and the tropical system together, thus keeping the system just to our east…

This will be something for us to watch very closely in the coming days, as this setup could result in heavy rains around here. IF we get rain from this tropical system, it would be the 4th of the season to do so. That’s pretty amazing.

I will have the full update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 am

Rain Chances Slowly Increase By The Weekend

Good Tuesday, folks. We continue to roll along with a very nice fall pattern, but changes continue to show up later in the week. These changes will bring an increased threat for showers and storms, to go along with a big dip in the jet stream coming early next week.

Speaking of rain chances, there is a slight chance for a shower or storm to go up today across the west…

Temps range from the upper 70s to near 80 for many, with a low 80 possible in the west and south.

Wednesday will find similar conditions across the state, as we start to focus on a late week cold front. This front makes a run at us on Thursday, bringing a slight chance for a shower or storm. That may carry us into Friday, especially in the west and north.

Some tropical juice from the Gulf then tries to lift to the north later this weekend. That can bring a better chance for showers and storms, especially in the east. The GFS shows this and a more powerful front early next week…

That’ s a nice shot of chill still targeted to arrive behind that front.

The same model run Is also showing a bigger push of chill following that up…

The overall pattern is about to go from 0 to 60 across our part of the world. It wouldn’t surprise me if October finishes up normal or above normal in the rain category. I’m gonna continue to throw out the potential for a busier than normal second severe weather season.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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