Daily Archives: October 5, 2017

Time posted: 2:54 pm

Update On The Weekend Heavy Rain Threat

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to focus on the weekend and the increasing threat for heavy rains to push across the region. This threat comes from Nate meeting up with a cold front right on top of our region.

Tropical Storm Nate is off the coast of Costa Rica and is part of a convoluted tropical mess in the Caribbean…

Nate will work toward the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, likely becoming a hurricane as it does so. The track from the National Hurricane Center has finally caught up to reality, focusing more toward Louisiana than Florida with landfall.

The track then brings Nate into Kentucky…

cone graphic

The spaghetti plots from the hurricane models continue to be clustered in the same general areas…

The GFS Ensembles are similar, but a smidge west…

The new GFS brings Nate right on top of Kentucky late Sunday into Monday…

Cold fronts meeting up with tropical systems really up the ante for heavy rainfall. The front itself will likely have tropical moisture to work with well before Nate arrives. We will need to watch for a band of very heavy rain to develop along this front Saturday night into early Sunday. Then, the rains from Nate arrive later Sunday into Monday.

Several inches of rain will be possible, giving us a flood threat across parts of the state. The European Model has an area of 5″+ on the latest run…

Which area of the state has the greatest risk? It’s too soon to tell, but I will hone in on that later tonight and Friday.

In the near-term, a few showers are impacting areas across the northern half of the state…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:43 am

Weekend Heavy Rain Threat Increases

Good Thursday, folks. We have a weak cold front working into the region today, but this isn’t much of a big deal. The bigger deal will arrive this weekend in the form of a stronger cold front meeting up with a tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico. These two may bring a lot of rain to much of Kentucky.

In the short-term, we will see some clouds out there today, with just a small chance for isolated showers and storms. The best chance will be across the north. Here is your regional radar…

Friday’s forecast is a toasty one with temps in the low 80s, with a middle 80 possible in the south and west. Skies are mostly sunny.

Things quickly get interesting on Saturday as a cold front moves into the Ohio Valley. This will help draw some moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in scattered showers and storms developing.

It’s during this time that we may see a Hurricane spinning. The system responsible for this is coming all the way from near Nicaragua…

This will likely become Tropical Storm Nate and maybe Hurricane Nate once it gets into the Gulf to start the weekend. As expected, the track from the National Hurricane Center continues to bend toward the west…

cone graphic

The GFS continues to take this system toward Louisiana and then being drawn northward along the cold front hanging out on top of us…

The Canadian is a smidge farther west, but is singing the same tune…

As expected, the European Model has corrected itself and now brings a ton of rain our way…

The potential is there for several inches of rain to fall across our region from late Saturday through Monday. This could cause some high water issues to develop.

Another rain maker may follow that one up by Tuesday and Wednesday…

I will have additional updates later today, so check back.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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