Daily Archives: October 18, 2017

Time posted: 7:22 pm

Wednesday Evening Action Packed Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on where the pattern is going as we head toward the final days of October.

It’s a much colder look taking shape across the eastern half of the country, but can it produce anything other than just cold? As we continue to search for the answer, let’s take a look at where things currently stand.

The European Model seems to have a very good handle on how next week plays out. It’s the best model suited to handle all the atmospheric chaos ongoing across the globe, and we have a lot of it.

Rain arrives from west to east on Sunday as a cold front gets into town. That front then slows down, allowing a big storm system to develop along it and roll across Kentucky. That brings heavy rain and helps unlock the first shot of cold air…

If it works out like that, very heavy rain totals would be possible on Monday. You can also see the wraparound cold showers on a strong northwesterly wind flow. Highs in the 40s will be possible by Wednesday. It may also produce a few flakes across the Appalachian Mountains.

As that system departs, a colder blast of air dives in by next Friday and Saturday…

Can that get some flakes flying across areas of the Ohio Valley? It’s too early to tell, but the air is frigid for late October.

Check out both cold shots from the European…

The European Ensembles (51 different members) are in strong agreement with the operational run…

The European Model shows significant blocking going up across Canada into Greenland, allowing for a DEEP eastern US trough to develop…

As we mentioned earlier this week, a typhoon in the western Pacific is forecast to recurve in the coming days…

Lan will become a Super Typhoon as it heads toward Japan then curves northeast. That kinda track usually signifies a deep buckle in the jet stream across the eastern half of the United States.

There’s also a weaker system nearby that looks to recurve…

Some interesting parallels to November of 2014 showing up with the above look. I will talk about that later tonight.

Make it a good evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:44 am

Cold Changes Next Week

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s another frosty start to the day for several areas of the bluegrass state, but this chill is just a preview of what’s ahead. We have a cold season looking setup taking shape as we head into next week.

Before we get to all that, the weather looks absolutely awesome through the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Soak it up!

The first hint of significant change shows up on Sunday as a system works in from west to east. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase and carry us into Monday. Some of the models are now jumping on a much bigger system, bringing the threat for heavy rainfall.

Watch how the Canadian blows this thing up, with cold air following by Tuesday and Wednesday…

You can clearly see that cold shot and a much bigger blast of cold by the end of next week…

The GFS Ensembles continue to indicate the potential for a few flakes to fly in the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains with that…

We will just have to wait and see exactly how all this plays out over the next week or so.

The new run of the extended European Ensembles through November continue to indicate some early season snow chances…

I will throw some updates your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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