Daily Archives: October 20, 2017

Time posted: 3:14 pm

A Big Update On Big Changes

Good Friday afternoon, folks. I had a little free time on my hands this afternoon, so I wanted to put together a big post on the big changes coming next week. This is a period of change that’s been advertised for the past few weeks here on the blog. It’s a change featuring a lot of rain, wind, cold temps and an outside chance at a flake.

The first round of showers and storms arrive in western Kentucky late Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front works in. As this happens, low pressure develops along the boundary to our south, and rolls northward right on top of the state Monday into Monday night. The end result will be heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, gusty winds and a big drop in temps…

Many areas can pick up an inch or two of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS rainfall forecast…

Winds become northwesterly and are VERY gusty Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air dives in from the northwest…

Notice the showers that accompany that northwesterly wind. The GFS does try to throw a flake into that Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…

I think the chance for a flake in that setup is pretty small, but the high mountains to our east should see some. Temps may not get out of the 40s on Wednesday. Lows by Thursday morning drop toward the freezing mark or a touch below.

Gusty southwesterly winds will warm us up quickly by Friday, but this is ahead of another potent system rolling in on Saturday…

Gusty winds, heavy rains and an even bigger temp crash are possible in that setup. The GFS shows temps dropping through the 30s on Saturday with something else showing up for a few…

Take that with a grain of salt from a week away, but it does match what ALL the ensembles have been showing… early season flake potential for the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains. Those same ensembles continue to show this potential from next week into the first few days of November…

Back to the shot of cold next weekend… A hard freeze is likely by Saturday or Sunday. GFS Sunday morning temps…

The results from the recurving Typhoon out in the western Pacific is likely now showing up on the operational models for the next few weeks. Earlier this week, I talked about the similarities to the current setup and the one that gave us all the cold back in November of 2014. Combine that with the signal from some of my analog years, it gives us a decent understanding of the possibilities ahead.

For fun, the GFS goes coo coo for coco puffs with the cold diving into the country in early November…

Man… you guys got a mega-update in the middle of a gorgeous Friday afternoon. That either means I’m excited where the pattern is going or that I’m bored. Maybe both? 🙂

Regardless, I hope you enjoy me stepping it up a few notches with the posts this week.

I’ll see you late tonight for a fresh post. Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:57 am

All Eyes On Next Week

Good Friday, folks. Our nice weather pattern rolls on for a few more days, then some big time changes blow into the bluegrass state. It all starts with a potent storm system early next week, with cold shots coming in behind that. The potential is there for several shots of cold to show up for the last week or October into early November.

The weather today and Saturday continues to look amazing. Highs will be in the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Those clouds will increase from west to east late Saturday into Sunday. A few showers and storms will impact far western Kentucky as early as Saturday night . Much of the Sunday shower and storm action hangs around western Kentucky, and can produce heavy rains…

Low pressure then  develops to our southwest and rolls near us on Monday. Gusty winds, showers and storms, heavy rainfall and a big temperature crash will be noted from this system. The GFS, as expected, continues to correct itself as we get closer…

The European Model brings the system right over us on Monday…

That storm system can drop a couple inches of rain across our part of the world. Wind gusts may also reach 30mph at times, especially as the low goes by and cold air surges in from the northwest. That same northwesterly flow will then produce rain showers, with a plume of moisture coming off Lake Michigan. That scenario may also spit out some snowflakes in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountain chain.

That system pulls away on Thursday as winds gust up ahead of the next front dropping in here by Friday and Saturday. The European Model is trying to make this into another good rain and wind maker ahead of more cold air pouring in…

The Canadian Model isn’t as wet, but has the cold…

The same model shows some very cold temps one week from tonight…

That may be a bit too cold, but you get the idea.

The GFS Ensembles, similar to what the European Ensembles are doing, continue to show the flakes potential across the Ohio Valley at some point over the next few weeks…

I will update things later today. Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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