Daily Archives: October 20, 2017

Time posted: 3:14 pm

A Big Update On Big Changes

Good Friday afternoon, folks. I had a little free time on my hands this afternoon, so I wanted to put together a big post on the big changes coming next week. This is a period of change that’s been advertised for the past few weeks here on the blog. It’s a change featuring a lot of rain, wind, cold temps and an outside chance at a flake.

The first round of showers and storms arrive in western Kentucky late Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front works in. As this happens, low pressure develops along the boundary to our south, and rolls northward right on top of the state Monday into Monday night. The end result will be heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, gusty winds and a big drop in temps…

Many areas can pick up an inch or two of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS rainfall forecast…

Winds become northwesterly and are VERY gusty Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air dives in from the northwest…

Notice the showers that accompany that northwesterly wind. The GFS does try to throw a flake into that Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…

I think the chance for a flake in that setup is pretty small, but the high mountains to our east should see some. Temps may not get out of the 40s on Wednesday. Lows by Thursday morning drop toward the freezing mark or a touch below.

Gusty southwesterly winds will warm us up quickly by Friday, but this is ahead of another potent system rolling in on Saturday…

Gusty winds, heavy rains and an even bigger temp crash are possible in that setup. The GFS shows temps dropping through the 30s on Saturday with something else showing up for a few…

Take that with a grain of salt from a week away, but it does match what ALL the ensembles have been showing… early season flake potential for the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains. Those same ensembles continue to show this potential from next week into the first few days of November…

Back to the shot of cold next weekend… A hard freeze is likely by Saturday or Sunday. GFS Sunday morning temps…

The results from the recurving Typhoon out in the western Pacific is likely now showing up on the operational models for the next few weeks. Earlier this week, I talked about the similarities to the current setup and the one that gave us all the cold back in November of 2014. Combine that with the signal from some of my analog years, it gives us a decent understanding of the possibilities ahead.

For fun, the GFS goes coo coo for coco puffs with the cold diving into the country in early November…

Man… you guys got a mega-update in the middle of a gorgeous Friday afternoon. That either means I’m excited where the pattern is going or that I’m bored. Maybe both? 🙂

Regardless, I hope you enjoy me stepping it up a few notches with the posts this week.

I’ll see you late tonight for a fresh post. Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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