Daily Archives: October 21, 2017

Time posted: 3:18 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. The upcoming pattern continues to look VERY busy and VERY cold as we get ready to end October and usher in November. Cold shots are lining up, with the potential for an early season taste of winter weather showing up across the region.

To kick things off, we have a potent storm system rolling in here later Sunday and Monday. That system is already throwing some clouds our way, with a few showers and storms across far western Kentucky…


Low pressure develops to our southwest on Sunday and rolls across the state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds…

The rainfall potential from this system is impressive. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall to much of the state, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS is showing enough to cause some local high water issues…

Cold air crashes in behind the departing storm with temps falling all day Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds will create numerous showers…

Temps by Wednesday stay in the 40s for highs. Lows drop into the 30s and should go below freezing by Thursday morning.

Winds will be gusty as temps recover some by Thursday and early Friday. This is ahead of a colder push of air arriving for the weekend. It’s likely to be accompanied by some decent rains along and ahead of our front…

Can the cold air catch up to the back edge of the rain shield and produce some flakes across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains? Hmmm

The overall pattern continues to show similarities to November of 2014. A few days ago, I outlined the super typhoon connection from that year to this year as a potential indicator of where this setup may lead us.

Just take a look the endless troughs digging in here through the first week of November…

That spells COLD…

If the pattern plays out as it appears to, it would be hard for us not to get the first flakes of the season at some point by the first few days of November.

I will update everything again tonight. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:37 am

Tracking The Pattern Change

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend weather is pretty awesome and I suggest you get out and enjoy it, given the pattern taking shape. It’s a pattern that looks more like late fall or early winter than the final week and change of October.

Temps today look good with thermometers in the 70s with a mix of sun and high clouds.

A cold front moves closer to us on Sunday, bringing showers and storms into the western part of the state. Heavy amounts of rain are possible in this region.

As the front stalls on us Monday, a potent low pressure develops to our south and moves right on top of the region. This brings gusty winds, heavy rain and showers and thunderstorms into town. As the low goes by, temps take a huge tumble on Tuesday with wraparound showers kicking in.

The European Model has a potent storm system rolling across our region…

The Canadian Model is very similar…

Many areas can pick up an inch or two of rain from this system, with the potential for higher amounts. Winds will also be very gusty, especially as the cold air wraps in behind the departing storm Tuesday.

This setup can produce some flakes in the highest elevations of the Appalachian Mountains just to our east.

Temps moderate some late Thursday into Friday, ahead of the next system quickly rolling in. This may bring gusty rains with even colder air coming in behind it over the weekend. There is a chance for some Ohio Valley Flakes during this time.

The Canadian Model has two cold shots behind that particular system…

That’s some real deal cold showing up there, taking us right on into Halloween.

The GFS, albeit with some slight differences, does the same with additional cold shots into early November…

The same run does show the potential for flakes with these shots…

It’s interesting to note the Ensembles are have grown a little more bullish on the potential for Ohio Valley flakes to fly at some point over the next week to 10 days…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

I will update things late today, so check back. Until then, enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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