Daily Archives: October 24, 2017

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We are dealing with a much colder wind blowing out there today and this is kicking off a very cold pattern to end October. It’s also an active look as we shut the door on the 10th month of the year and say hello to number 11.

Scattered showers today packed some graupel, giving us our first official winter precipitation. Surface temps were well above freezing, but the freezing level was VERY close to the ground, allowing for the graupel to make it down to where we live.

Those gusty showers continue on a gusty northwesterly wind. These showers will slowly diminish some as we head into overnight…


Temps by tomorrow morning will be deep into the 30s for many areas.

Another fast-moving system drops in late Wednesday afternoon and evening and may spit out a few showers…

There’s the chance for the high mountains in the far southeast to see a few flakes. The NAM still likes a little bit of snow around Big Black Mountain…

Temps behind this may drop many thermometers to freezing or below by Thursday morning…

Winds become gusty on Thursday afternoon as temps head back into the upper 50s to near 60. This leads us into a huge change coming up for later Friday into early Saturday. A strong cold front will be working through here with gusty showers arriving from west to east Friday evening. This will have very gusty winds and a big temp drop behind the front. Check out the big gradient on the NAM late Friday evening…

Notice how the cold is catching the back edge of the rain shield switching it over to some sleet and snow approaching western Kentucky. We will see how that works into Saturday, but this looks like a lot of cold rain…

As cold air continues to push in, wraparound showers may develop on Sunday. Some of these may give us some snowflakes. Check out the GFS for Sunday into Sunday night…

For fun, check out what the GFS is showing a few days later as November arrives…

Now, we may not get a flake out of the next week, but it’s pretty amazing to be tracking different winter weather possibilities this early.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

A Cold and Active Pattern Takes Shape

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are rolling into a much colder and busier than normal pattern for the final week of October. This chilly setup will also carry us into early November as we have the potential for an early season winter looking systems across the region.

Colder air is surging into the region from northwest to southeast today. With the gusty northwesterly wind, we can get in on a few showers…


Temps will be in the 50s into early afternoon then drop into the upper 40s by late this afternoon into the early evening. Temps by Wednesday morning will then drop into the 30s.

A weak system will dive in here Wednesday night and has a sneaky look to it. This can produce a few showers, with an outside chance at a snowflake showing up. The NAM is showing some spots of blue by Wednesday evening…

Check out what it’s doing around Big Black Mountain in southeastern Kentucky…

That seems a little aggressive, but it’s not a total stretch.

The NAM is now going with some 20s scattered across the state by Thursday morning…

Thursday is a very windy day as temps rebound into the 60s. Gusty winds continue into Friday as a strong cold front rolls our way. The setup for the weekend is an interesting one with a deep trough diving into our region, as a tropical low works northward from the Caribbean. How much of an interaction do we get between these two?

The GFS is now seeing more and more of these two hooking up…

Taken verbatim, that run gives us a windy, cold rain on Saturday as temps crash from west to east. It then slows the rains up across the east as our storm passes just to our east. It would also imply some wraparound snowflake action for Sunday.

Watch for the GFS to trend a little farther west with that.

The Canadian model has a similar way of thinking, but produces a much bigger storm…

That’s actually one heck of a setup for the weekend. Can it spit out a few flakes in our region? Yes. Will it? That remains to be seen, but it’s an interesting look. One thing we know for sure about the weekend is… it looks ugly. Cold temps, rainy skies and gusty winds will make for some nasty.

Once that system moves away, there’s another surge of cold air coming in behind that around Halloween. The Canadian Model is showing a winter looking setup to introduce it…

With another recurving west Pacific typhoon over the next week, expect these cold shots to keep coming at us through the first few weeks of November. The CFS has finally caught up to the teleconnections. Here’s what it’s now showing for the first week of November…

I will update things later today and will also be back on WKYT starting at 4.

Make it a great day and take care.

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