Daily Archives: October 26, 2017

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Latest Thoughts On The Weekend

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by to throw our some updated thoughts on the upcoming weekend and out possible small taste of winter weather.

The overall setup remains the same with a strong cold front moving in here Friday into early Saturday. Temps drop more than 30 degrees as heavy rain moves in along the front. The cold catches up to the back edge to the rain shield, giving parts of central Kentucky the chance for a few flakes to mix in.

The current odds map really hasn’t changed much since I put it out yesterday…

The NAM keeps spitting out some flakes…

The NAM is gaining some friends now in the modeling world. The European Model shows a similar area getting in on some flakes…

The only model not showing a few flakes mixing in… The GFS. That’s usually a bad sign for the GFS.

A wraparound rain shower may develop on Sunday, especially in the east. This is where a snowflake may mix in, especially in the high elevations.

I mentioned a monster storm slamming into the northeast at the same time… Check this out…

Another shot of colder air sinks in from the north early next week. That gives us a seasonally chilly Halloween, with clouds on the increase. A shower is possible late across the west and southwest, but the bulk of the cold rain likely holds off into the first few days of November…

I will see you late tonight for an update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:26 pm

Thursday Midday Update

Good afternoon, fellow weather weenies. We continue to track a fun final weekend of October in the bluegrass state. A strong cold front promises some big time changes to go along with a small taste of winter weather for some.

Overall, there is zero change from what we have been talking about all week long. This will be a huge temp drop coming in Friday afternoon and evening. Late Friday afternoon will feature a 30+ degree temp spread from west to east…

That cold air surges eastward overnight Friday, with these numbers showing up at 8am Saturday…

2pm numbers show where the shield of precipitation is. Just look for the upper 30s to find the precip…

Temps rebound into the low and mid 40s as the precip ends, but gusty winds will make it feel MUCH colder than that.

What about the chances for some snowflake action? The NAM isn’t skipping a beat with showing rain changing to snow or mixing with snow in the west and central parts of the state into Saturday morning…

The GFS is just a touch cooler than earlier runs, allowing for more flake action to mix in on the western side of the rain shield…

Again, we are likely just talking about some wet flakes mixing in with the rain at times by Saturday morning, with the best chance in western and central parts of the state.

Cold northwesterly winds will continue to blow on Sunday as a MONSTER of a storm slams into New England. The northwest wind will likely spit out a few rain showers, possibly mixed with more flakes. This action is centered more in the central and east…

I’ll update things on WKYT starting at 4 and get you another blog update this evening.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:28 am

A Fun Start To The Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. We are rolling toward a wild start to the final weekend of October. A strong cold front will blow across Kentucky and may give parts of the state a tiny taste of winter. Beyond that, the pattern continues to look colder than normal and more active than normal into early November.

There’s a lot to break down with the forecast, so let’s get after it.

Our cold front arrives into western Kentucky on Friday with a huge temperature swing. We may see a 30+ degree temperature gradient from west to east. Check out the 5pm numbers from the NAM…

Wow!

Winds may gust from 30-40mph at times as this front blows across the Commonwealth.  Rain breaks out quickly and will be heavy at times across the west and central parts of the state into Friday evening.

The cold air tries to catch the back edge of the rain shield Friday night into Saturday morning. Here are the Saturday morning temps on the NAM…

Can we switch some of the rain over to snow in the west and central parts of the state by Saturday morning? The NAM continues to say YES…

The GFS continues to say this is mainly rain, with just a small flake chance on the back edge of the rain shield early Saturday…

The RPM Model is showing some flake action into parts of central and northern Kentucky into Indiana and Ohio…

Moral of the story: There’s a chance for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain across parts of western and central Kentucky Friday night and early Saturday. The only reason this is noteworthy is because it’s still October.

The rain and precipitation shield continues to work eastward into Saturday afternoon. Temps behind this will hit the 40-45 degree range, with wind chills in the 30s. The rain may be slow to exit eastern Kentucky Saturday evening, and the NAM has another switchover by Saturday night…

Again, I’m not sold on this NAM solution as it does appear to be too aggressive with the cold. Still, it’s a good VERY early season test of the models. Nothing wrong with a good model fight. 🙂

Sunday is another cold day with highs in the 40s and wind chills making it feel colder than that. Leftover showers may be noted in the east with another flake chance in the high ground.

Another cold shot comes our way on Halloween and may bring some rain with it into day one of November…

In the medium range, the models are gonna struggle in a huge way. They always do during a seasonal transition, but that’s being enhanced by such a busy setup across the northern hemisphere.

I’ll be back with updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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