Monthly Archives: January 2018

Time posted: 1:54 am

Tracking The Snow Possibilities

Good Tuesday, everybody. Snow showers and flurries will wind down early today, after putting down light accumulations in many areas. We are likely waking up to some cancellations and delays because of the flakes. I’m tracking more snow chances as we close out January and usher in February.

As mentioned, the snow showers and flurries are calming down today, but will still create slick travel at times…

A nice redound in temps moves in for Wednesday, ahead of our next system moving in Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front sweeps in here from the northwest, with rain ahead of it. A weak wave of low pressure develops along the front, with a switch to snow likely.

The GFS is back to showing a slightly better organized setup…

That run of the GFS has a modest snowfall across parts of central and eastern Kentucky…

The Canadian Model is a little slower with the transition from rain to snow…

Moral of the story with the Thursday system… This is a rain to snow setup, but this system is zipping through here pretty quickly. The heavier the precipitation shield, the better the chance for some thumpers to fall from the sky. That heavy precip pulls down cold air in this type of atmosphere. The best chance for that to happen is across the south and southeast.

As of now, I still can’t see this being anything more than a modest snowfall for some.

The fast movement of the Thursday system is due to the quick arrival of our weekend situation. One system likely moves in Saturday night and early Sunday, with another system moving our way late Sunday into Monday.

The European Model actually has the action starting by Saturday afternoon…

It then brings another system in here late Monday…

Here’s the view from the Canadian…

The GFS actually has 3 systems, followed by another one a few days later…

With arctic shots plentiful in the coming few weeks, the GFS Ensembles suggest it may snow all the way to the Gulf again…

I will have your usual updates back and running today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:31 pm

Monday Afternoon Winter Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track a cold front across Kentucky, bringing an increase in snow showers to the region. This is the opening act of what should be another prolonged period of winter weather.

As the cold front sweeps east today, temps drop in a hurry. Snow showers will then kick in behind the boundary, with light accumulations possible into tonight, especially across the east. A Winter Weather Advisory is our for far southeastern parts of the state. An inch or so is possible in these areas.

Track away…

Watch for some slick spots on area roads later tonight and early Tuesday.

The end of the week system continues to get pushed by another system quickly moving in behind it for the weekend.

Rain develops on Thursday, with a transition to snow before the precipitation quickly moves away. Here’s the Canadian…

The GFS is similar…

Given the very quick movement of that system, light accumulations may be as good as it gets. Obviously, if it slows down, then accumulations with that will be higher.

The “push” comes from this system coming in as early as Saturday night…

That would make for a rather snowy Super Bowl Sunday in our part of the world.

From there, the pattern appears to be heading toward one that COULD lock us into a cold and snowy February…

Watch the arctic shots rotating in here through the middle of the month…

I will have another update this evening. Take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Watching The Late Week System

Good Monday, everyone. A cold front is working across the bluegrass state today, with a few  snow showers increasing during the afternoon and evening. As this system brings back some winter weather, the system later this week continues to throw some question marks at us.

Before we get to that, let’s start with the today’s system.

Temps may spike into the 40s ahead of this front, but drop quickly behind it. Winds will be very gusty and that northwesterly wind will fire up snow showers and some squalls later today into this tonight. The best chance for some LIGHT accumulations will be in the east.

Track the action as it begins to develop…

Temps by Tuesday morning drop to around 20, so watch for some slick spots. The rest of the day is cold with highs from the upper 20s to low 30s.

The late week system finds a little bit of a split in the latest models. The European Model is back to a modest rain to snow event, especially in the east and southeast…

The German Model (ICON) continues to be in a similar camp…

The Canadian has jumped on board the progressive train, with light rain to some light snow Thursday into Thursday night…

The GFS is similar…

The reality of this is likely closer to what the European shows than what the GFS is showing. This is likely a rain to snow setup, with a modest snowfall possible in parts of the state. That said, this is still a long way from being set in stone.

One of the wild cards in this whole setup is how quickly the next winter weather threat shows up this weekend. The models are bringing this in here by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday. Here’s the GFS…

The European Model is actually showing a similar setup…

As you can see, there’s no shortage of action to track over the next week. Can we get the weekend system to slow down enough to let the Thursday system do some winter weather work around here? That’s the big question of the next few days.

I will have updates coming your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:46 pm

Late Weekend Update

Good evening, folks. We are wrapping up a pretty nice Sunday across much of the region, but Old Man Winter is about to throw some shots at us for the week ahead.

The first shot is a light one, slated to arrive later Monday into early Tuesday. That’s when a cold front works in from northwest to southeast. Temps may spike to the 40s ahead of it, but quickly drop as the front sweeps in. Much of the precipitation with this is back in the cold air, leading to light snow and snow showers.

Watch this action show up well on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM…

Light accumulations are possible, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. Slick travel may also develop as we head into Monday night and early Tuesday.

The late week system continues to be in a holding pattern until we can fully get all the energy onshore and properly sampled. That will then be ingested into the models, giving them a better handle on how things play out Thursday and Friday.

The new GFS is trying to find the system again…

One reason the GFS is faster and weaker with this system is because it’s being pushed by a system coming in right behind it. The GFS tries to bring another snow threat by Saturday night and Super Bowl Sunday…

A new model from Germany has recently become more accessible. I have been watching it for a few weeks now, and it seems to be a reliable tool. Granted it’s the new kid in town, but the ICON Model looks like the Canadian from earlier…

I will try to really hone in on this setup later tonight into Monday.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:35 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track two winter weather systems for the week ahead. The first rolls in here later Monday, with the second one due in later in the week. That system can bring a bigger threat of winter weather to our region.

The Monday light snow maker arrives during the afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Periods of light snow and snow showers will be likely, putting down light accumulations. The best chance to pick up on accumulating snows will be in the mountains of the east.

That’s where a few models are spitting out an inch or so…

With temps dropping toward 20 late Monday night, slick spots may easily develop on roads in the east.

The late week system continues to evolve and we finally have the GFS doing what it does best… losing systems in that 3-6 day window…

That said, I mentioned in my last post that this system would trend more south than north. I just think it’s way too weak. Can that above scenario happen? Only if the arctic front just crushes everything.

The Canadian Model continues to show a healthy hit across Kentucky and surrounding areas…

The European Model is more similar to the Canadian, but has a slower transition from rain to snow…

There are still lots of questions surrounding this upcoming system, and we are firmly in that window of the models missing out on key aspects of any such system.

I will have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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