Daily Archives: January 5, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s another bitterly cold night out there, but the focus of the forecast is on the winter weather potential coming in for late Sunday and Monday. It’s a setup that can lead to all modes of precipitation.

My overall thoughts have not changed, and I don’t really expect much change. The only thing left to fine tune is how much moisture can fall in each form. Here’s my current look of what to expect…

The individual threats look like this…

With the frozen ground, icy roads are pretty much a given from later Sunday evening into, at least, the first part of Monday.

If you plan on traveling during this time, you may want to consider altering those travel plans around the worst of the weather.

Earlier today, I outlined another winter weather threat pattern by the end of next week into next weekend. The models are showing this threat. Here’s the latest GFS…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Watching The Messy Mix For Sunday and Monday

Good afternoon, everyone. As we continue to deal with bitterly cold temperatures, let’s really start to focus on the potential for a mix and ice coming Sunday and Monday. We’ve set the stage for this for the past several days, and now it’s time to try and hone in a little more.

Here’s the map I made last night, and it still looks to be in good shape…

The models are slowly sensing the low-level arctic air is going to be a tough cookie to scour out, but they continue to overdo the temps. That said, even the poor GFS is showing the mix potential…

Watch for that to trend colder.

The history of the NAM is to better handle low-level cold air, and it appears to be living up to that. It’s seeing the cold hanging tough and that shows up on the winter weather maps. This is not JUST a snow map, this is showing where frozen precipitation falls and accumulates…

The previous run of the NAM was similar, but you can see how the placements change just a little…

The trend for Saturday night is for the bitter cold to linger deeper into Sunday morning. Lows may make it back into the single digits for the 7 straight day to start the year…

The NAM then keeps us at or below freezing through much of Sunday night and Monday. Here’s the 8am Monday temp forecast from the latest run…

Given the frozen ground and road temps well below freezing, this has the potential to become a travel nightmare late Sunday into Monday for some areas. Nothing good will come from a frozen ground and air temps within a few degrees of freezing, and precipitation falling.

If you’re planning to travel late Sunday into Monday, please stay alert to this situation.

After that moves out on Tuesday, temps rebound a little with a modified arctic front moving in by Thursday and Friday. That slows down to our east, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it, that may set the stage for a winter weather maker in the area I’ve outlined below…

I will have the latest update, and a First Call For Messfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:10 am

Tracking The Switch From Bitter Cold To Wintry

Good evening, everyone. The bitterly cold temperatures continue, in what has been one of, if not THE, coldest starts to any year on record. Today is the 5th straight day of single digits or below, and we will stretch that out to 6 on Saturday. From there, we watch for a potential winter weather maker later Sunday into Monday.

If you’ve been watching your friendly weatherdude on the tube, you can tell I continue to fight this bug that’s going around. Given that, I’m going to TRY to keep this fairly short.

Temps out there this morning are just brutal. Lows can drop to zero or below for areas totally cleaning up the sky, with single digits for those who don’t. Wind chills range from -5 to -15 at times. Highs today reach 20 or so in the south, with middle teens in the north. Gusty winds will tell your body something else.

Saturday is another brutal one with lows from -5 to +5 and a wind chill approaching -10 at times. Highs are back into the upper teens and low 20s.

I have no changes to my thoughts about the late Sunday into Monday system. The models should continue to trend a little colder as we get closer, leading to more of a wintry mix than what they are already showing. All modes of precipitation are possible, and the frozen ground is a BIG concern of mine.

Here’s a first look at who has the best chance for the worst of the wintry mix potential…

If it looks like the precipitation will be heavy enough, I may go into Threat mode later today. Again, all modes of precipitation are expected in this scenario.

One week from today, we may very well be tracking a stronger system from the south, riding up the Appalachian Mountains.

Back to the weather of today… A band of light snow is working across western Kentucky and may put down light accumulations. I have you set to track the small system…

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Jenkins

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I will have updates later today, so check back.

Make it a good one and take care.

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