Daily Archives: January 5, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s another bitterly cold night out there, but the focus of the forecast is on the winter weather potential coming in for late Sunday and Monday. It’s a setup that can lead to all modes of precipitation.

My overall thoughts have not changed, and I don’t really expect much change. The only thing left to fine tune is how much moisture can fall in each form. Here’s my current look of what to expect…

The individual threats look like this…

With the frozen ground, icy roads are pretty much a given from later Sunday evening into, at least, the first part of Monday.

If you plan on traveling during this time, you may want to consider altering those travel plans around the worst of the weather.

Earlier today, I outlined another winter weather threat pattern by the end of next week into next weekend. The models are showing this threat. Here’s the latest GFS…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Watching The Messy Mix For Sunday and Monday

Good afternoon, everyone. As we continue to deal with bitterly cold temperatures, let’s really start to focus on the potential for a mix and ice coming Sunday and Monday. We’ve set the stage for this for the past several days, and now it’s time to try and hone in a little more.

Here’s the map I made last night, and it still looks to be in good shape…

The models are slowly sensing the low-level arctic air is going to be a tough cookie to scour out, but they continue to overdo the temps. That said, even the poor GFS is showing the mix potential…

Watch for that to trend colder.

The history of the NAM is to better handle low-level cold air, and it appears to be living up to that. It’s seeing the cold hanging tough and that shows up on the winter weather maps. This is not JUST a snow map, this is showing where frozen precipitation falls and accumulates…

The previous run of the NAM was similar, but you can see how the placements change just a little…

The trend for Saturday night is for the bitter cold to linger deeper into Sunday morning. Lows may make it back into the single digits for the 7 straight day to start the year…

The NAM then keeps us at or below freezing through much of Sunday night and Monday. Here’s the 8am Monday temp forecast from the latest run…

Given the frozen ground and road temps well below freezing, this has the potential to become a travel nightmare late Sunday into Monday for some areas. Nothing good will come from a frozen ground and air temps within a few degrees of freezing, and precipitation falling.

If you’re planning to travel late Sunday into Monday, please stay alert to this situation.

After that moves out on Tuesday, temps rebound a little with a modified arctic front moving in by Thursday and Friday. That slows down to our east, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it, that may set the stage for a winter weather maker in the area I’ve outlined below…

I will have the latest update, and a First Call For Messfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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