Daily Archives: January 10, 2018

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the developing winter storm set to impact our weather Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Let’s hit the high notes and get you caught up on where things stand as of now.

A Winter Storm Watch is out for the western half of Kentucky…

Expect that to be extended eastward later tonight and Thursday.

The European Model has a quicker transition to ice and snow Thursday night into early Friday, with snow taking over through Friday night…

Here’s the Ice forecast from that run…

The snowfall from that run is mainly across central and eastern Kentucky…

The GFS keeps showing something a little different from run to run. While it has the theme of the setup correct…

It seems to be choppy with the precipitation and placement. Here’s the ice forecast from the GFS…

The GFS snowfall looks… Odd…

Our WSI provided GFS Ensembles snowfall forecast is targeting much of the region…

The NAM continues to be the most prolific precipitation producer with this storm…

The NAM has a tendency to overdo precipitation amounts, but it did perform best with the east coast winter storm last week. Here’s the Ice forecast from this run of the NAM…

The snowfall from this run…

You probably noticed I did NOT put together a fist call map on WKYT. That’s partially because I ran out of time due to a work meeting I forgot about. But, it’s also because I didn’t feel totally comfortable with doing so. I’m never going to just put one together for the sake of putting one together.

I should put one together for tonight’s 11.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Updating The Winter Storm Threat

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gorgeous day for many in the bluegrass state, but that changes in a hurry over the next few days. We continue with our Winter Storm Threat for much of the region, but I wanted to try and get more specific with the greatest areas of impact.

Let me start by saying this is still a fluid setup, with the track of the low and precipitation amounts still in question. Here’s my current thinking…

I will be updating that map, making changes as I get more confident in precipitation amounts and the exact track of our storm.

A First Call For Snow/Icefall will be coming your way on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Let’s do a quick check of the midday model runs to get you caught up on the current model trends.

The NAM takes one low toward West Virginia, then develops another low just east of the mountains, riding it up the east slopes of the Appalachians…

The NAM has had some pretty big swings in precipitation amounts and placement with the last few runs. The 6z run of the NAM showed a ton of ice…

It also produced a crushing band of snow…

The 12z run didn’t have as much precipitation. Here’s the Ice forecast…

And the snow forecast…

The higher resolution 3km NAM only goes out through 60 hours (7pm Friday), but shows a VERY healthy band of snow and ice sweeping across the state…

The GFS is starting to get better looking with the precipitation shield, but is still a bit disjointed…

GFS Ice Forecast…

GFS Snow Forecast…

The Canadian Model takes a slightly stronger low into West Virginia and then northeast, giving a much more solid band of snow and ice behind it…

Here’s the Ice forecast from the Canadian…

And the snow forecast from the same model…

I will get that First Call map out on WKYT at 4, then update it throughout the evening and the next few days. Yes, I will post it here on KWC, too later today.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Late Week Winter Storm THREAT Continues

Good Wednesday, everyone. As we get ready for a couple of mild days across the bluegrass state, a developing winter storm continues to come together for the end of the week. This could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to parts of Kentucky, prompting our Winter Storm THREAT.

We are now within 48 hours of the winter storm impacting Kentucky and the latest models are all trending colder and farther east with the track of the potential storm. While the models all agree on that trend, they still vary in terms of the exact track of the low and how much precipitation it produces.

All of the following images you are about to see are from different computer forecast models. They vary, sometimes greatly, with the impact on any one particular area and will change from run to run. Two things to remember here… Don’t get too attached to specifics or totals of any one model you see, and these are NOT a forecast from me. 🙂

While I’m confident on a winter storm impacting the region, I’m still not confident on the specifics. That said,  I will get a first call map out later today.

My last update showed how the NAM went crazy with the storm and is likely too extreme. However, the new European Model isn’t that far away from it. Watch the transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet, then snow…

That first image is Thursday night, with Saturday afternoon on the final image.

Here’s the freezing rain accumulation map from that run…

And the snow map…

The GFS takes the low toward West Virginia then seems to jump the low east of the mountains. Here’s the transition from rain to sleet and freezing rain then to snow…

The above timeline starts Thursday night and ends Saturday afternoon.

The precipitation on the GFS looks a little suspect and is likely underdone. Here’s what that run shows for ice…

That’s VERY disjointed and suggests the model is having a few issues. The snow map from the same run has a good hit for many, but nothing earth-shattering…

The Canadian seems to have a similar line of thinking with the low going from Tennessee to West Virginia, then jumping east of the mountains…

The Canadian keeps the ice threat in the west and far north…

Compared to the GFS, the Canadian is much snowier, but also seems to be a little disjointed with the precipitation output…

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles show quite a spread in the axis of heavy snowfall…

We still have MANY computer model runs to go through before the event arrives. That means additional changes are a certainty.

We will keep the Winter Storm Threat going until I get a better handle on where the axis of the worst weather sets up. A likely upgrade to Alert status will then follow.

Arctic cold comes in behind the snow with flurries and snow showers likely rolling through Sunday. Another storm system moves in by Monday and Tuesday, potentially bringing another accumulating snowfall…

I will have updates throughout the day, so check back. Make it a good day and take care.

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