Daily Archives: September 10, 2018

Time posted: 6:59 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a late October feeling day across the bluegrass state as the rain train slowly pulls out of town. The focus for the rest of the week is on what happens with Hurricane Florence and whether or not this major storm can impact our weather.

Highs today are in the 60s and that’s about as cool as you can possibly get for this time of year. Showers are working out of southeastern Kentucky, but there’s still some very heavy rain along the border counties…

There are still some Flood Warnings left from the historic weekend rains…

Cooler than normal temps take us through the next few days, with isolated showers and storms possible by Wednesday.

Hurricane Florence continues to rapidly intensify as it barrels toward the Carolinas. Here’s the latest specifics and track forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Folks, this storm is going to be devastating and will likely go down with some of the all-time greats to this this region. Here’s some more information from the NHC, including the wind forecast…

The European Model continues to show a devastating impact on the Carolinas…

From there, the model takes the remnants all the way into the Ohio Valley this weekend and early next week…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that particular run…

The GFS has a different look, with a looping storm making landfall in North Carolina then being picked up by the trough sweeping in from the northwest…

The NAVY has more of a European Model look in bringing that system our way…

The impact on our weather is a long way from being set in stone, but the potential is certainly alarming.

I will update things tonight, so be sure and check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:48 am

Cooler Weather As We Watch Florence

Good Monday, everyone. Historic rains fell across the state over the weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moved right on top of the state teamed up with a cold front to drench the state. Now, we are focusing on much cooler air to start the week and a monster Hurricane heading toward the Carolinas. This has a chance to impact our weather by the weekend.

The rainfall from the weekend was massive with several areas getting from 5″-9″ of rain. Severe flooding issues developed and some of those water issues are still ongoing early today in the east. This area could still be seeing some decent rains to start the day.

On a side note, Covington only hit 62 for a high on Sunday, making it the coolest high temp ever recorded there on September 9th.

It’s a day that feels the part of fall. Lots of low clouds will be around, with areas of drizzle or light showers and temps mainly in the 60s for highs. Track away…

Tuesday is another cooler than normal day with a mix of sun and clouds, with isolated showers and storms going up. That action may increase a bit on Wednesday as temps return to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Hurricane Florence is in the process of exploding into a major hurricane as it churns toward the east coast. This continues to look like a monster hit for the Carolinas…

cone graphic

A Category 4 or 5 hurricane may be heading into the Carolinas by Thursday. That, obviously, would be a devastating hit.

Here’s another interesting map from the NHC. This one shows the potential for tropical storm force winds and the percentages do extend all the way into Kentucky…

Perhaps the most useful forecast tool is the spaghetti plot. This is a series of hurricane models showing the individual tracks. Here’s the latest run from those…

In terms of operational models. the GFS takes this onshore in North Carolina and brings the remnant low and heavy rain our way next weekend and then slows it all down into next week…

The European Model is a bit farther south with landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border…

Watch how Florence then rides toward the southern Appalachian Mountains and stalls, throwing rain into Kentucky…

That would cause historic flooding for Appalachia if It comes to pass.

The Canadian is slower in getting it onshore, but also brings some of the rain our way…

It’s still too early to make a call on what, if any, direct impact Florence will have on our weather. That said, my concern is it does bring heavy rain into regions already suffering.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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