Daily Archives: September 11, 2018

Time posted: 6:59 pm

The Latest On Florence

Good evening, everyone. Hurricane Florence continues to head toward the Carolinas and will arrive late Thursday into early Friday. This system is slowing down a little and that opens the door for a little greater spread in the track possibilities, especially inland. As of this writing, there is an increasing risk for Florence to bring heavy rain and wind our way.

Here’s the latest specifics and forecast from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The hurricane models are showing the potential for a worst case scenario of a super slow-moving system in the Carolinas…

Notice how many of the members now bring that directly on top of Kentucky by Sunday and Monday. That could still be classified as a depression as it moves in.

The GFS Ensembles are similar…

The new European Model does a strange dance with Florence as it gets ready to come ashore…

Still, it brings that system right on top of Kentucky by Sunday and Monday…

The new run of the GFS is similar with the southward jog into South Carolina, then heads toward our way…

The same run from earlier today did not make the south look, but still rolled into our part of the world…

The NAVY Nogaps model is more similar to that run…

As you can see, there is still uncertainty as to exactly how all this plays out, but every model has the remnants of Florence impacting our weather in some capacity.

I will update things tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:59 am

All Eyes On Hurricane Florence

Good Tuesday, folks. We have some October-like weather across the bluegrass state and that’s a good thing because it means we are actually dry for a change. How long this lasts depends a lot on what happens with Hurricane Florence. Right now, odds are for this system to impact our weather.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs today are in the upper 60s and low 70s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Clouds are gonna be stubborn in much of this region. Western Kentucky are mainly sunny with upper 70s to near 80.

Wednesday will find readings in the west hitting the low 80s, with upper 70s for the rest of the state. It continues to look dry.

Temps do hit the 80s area-wide Thursday and Friday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, especially in the east.

Beyond this, it’s really up to Florence.

This powerful Hurricane continues to work toward the northwest and has a Thursday date with North Carolina. Here are the specifics from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Here’s a look at the tracks from the various hurricane models…

The European Model continues to show a disaster for North Carolina…

The model then stalls Florence over the Carolinas, ala Harvey, bringing tremendous rains. By Sunday into early next week, the Euro then brings what’s left of Florence into Kentucky, producing heavy rains…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run…

The rainfall max on that run is right at 48″ in North Carolina. Wow!

The latest GFS continues to show a bit of a stall and loop before hitting North Carolina, then brings the remnants our way…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that single run…

The Canadian also has a stall and loop before heading due west, with the remnants also moving into our region…

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

 

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