Daily Archives: October 21, 2018

Time posted: 1:38 am

Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

Good Sunday, everyone. Our old friend Mr. Freeze is back in the bluegrass state for the next couple of mornings. Many areas have already experienced a light freeze, but this one will pretty much finish off the growing season. As we look ahead, a very active pattern is evolving for the final week of October.

Our Sunday is starting with a freeze in many areas of Kentucky. The rest of the day looks really good, but cold. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s with almost full sun. Lows by Monday morning are back into the upper 20s and low 30s for many, bringing another freeze.

The first half of the week ahead looks really, really good! Frosty cold mornings will be followed by cool and dry afternoons. All of this as the fall colors begin to finally take off.

The setup for the final week of October is one  that will feature a major amplification in our jet stream.

This allows for big storm systems to develop, with potential impacts from each system really hard to determine from a week or so out.

The latest seasonal run of the European Model has a similar winter look as some of the other seasonal runs I’ve been sharing with you over the past few weeks.

We are looking at the average 500mb monthly anomalies on the maps below and they show a clear deep trough in the east and ridge in the west…

November has a weak trough developing in the east…

December goes bonkers with the trough…

That would certainly make for a very cold and, likely, snowy run up to Christmas.

The trough isn’t as deep in January, but it’s still there…

It snaps back in a big way for February…

And it continues into March…

If it pans out, that would certainly be one heck of a winter for much of the country!

I will be talking more about winter in the week ahead, including showing some of the driving forces I’m finding.

Have a great Sunday and take care.