Daily Archives: November 12, 2018

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Updating The Winter Weather Potential

Good evening, folks. It has been an absolutely dreary and cold day across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Some sleet and steady showers have been common, now we wait for some light snow to show up later tonight. This is kicking off a very active week that will throw a bigger winter weather system our way by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Let’s start with the first system that can throw some light snow in here later tonight. The best chance for some light snow is across the western and central parts of the state, oriented from southwest to northeast similar to the map I put out several days ago.

The GFS suggests some very light accumulations…

The short range Canadian has a little better coverage of that…

The new version of the GFS also has a little better coverage…

Moral of the story, I can’t rule out some slush accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces into western Kentucky and parts of central and¬† northern Kentucky.

The next storm system has the chance to bring a wintry mix into the region as early as Wednesday night. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow may develop on the leading edge of our precipitation shield during this time. From there, rain may take over for a while in central and eastern Kentucky, with a better snow chance in the west. As the low works through, wraparound snow may move across the rest of the state…

It’s very interesting to see the models spitting out some freezing rain this early in the year. Look at the European Model for Wednesday night…

Here’s the Freezing rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is similar…

The latest run of the GFS targets western Kentucky as being under and just west of the track of the upper low, giving more dynamic cooling for snow…

The European Model is a bit west with that…

It’s way too early in the season to be talking about precipitation types and the forecasting headaches that come with them. ūüôĀ

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:40 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Rain rolled into the region this morning and actually started as a touch of sleet across parts of north central and northeastern Kentucky. The rain is taking over, but should go back to a little frozen stuff later tonight and early Tuesday. Then, another system rolls our way in a few days. Busy enough for ya?

Here are your radars to track today’s initial touch of sleet and¬†rain…

The radars show the disjointed nature of the precipitation, with two shields. The main one moves through very quickly, but the rain and snow one to the west slowly works in behind it. Later tonight and Tuesday morning, that is on top of western and parts of central Kentucky.

Folks in the southeast may get another swipe of rain and some flakes Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The next system is going to turn into a big event across the eastern part of the country. This system will turn into a full blown nor’easter, with the trailing upper level low moving our way. As I’ve said for the past few days, if you want snow, you want to be directly under the upper low of just west of its track.

The models differ slightly with the track of the upper low, but many bring it on top of the region at some point. What may wind up happening in this setup: A wintry mix of precipitation moves in Wednesday night and goes over to rain early Thursday. By later Thursday, we are seeing that switch to some light snow from west to east as the upper low swings through.

Here’s the¬†NAM¬†through¬†early Thursday evening…

GFS

Canadian

ICON

I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4 and will also throw another update at you later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

Tracking The Winter Weather Chances

Good Monday, my fellow weather weenies. It’s another active week of weather beginning across our part of the world, with the chances for early season winter weather showing up. The first is a minor system later tonight and early Tuesday, with a stronger system quickly moving in behind it.

You know how we roll on the blog… We start with the precious present and roll forward. Rain is increasing across the state today as our fist system moves in. The heaviest will be across the southeastern part of the state…

As I’ve already explained in prior posts, this system is fairly strung out and is leaving behind the bulk of the energy. That will come out and form a bigger storm for the middle and end of the week. Because of that, this first system doesn’t have as much precipitation and is weaker and very fast moving. Still, it should be able to change to a period of light snow later tonight and early Tuesday, especially in the west and central parts of the state…

Notice the disconnect between the main rain shield and the rain and snow lagging behind to the west. That’s what moves in later tonight with the chance for some wet snow in the areas I just mentioned. Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

Cold air continues to pour in behind this for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

All that energy that’s holding back decides to become a little bowling ball of an upper level low and it looks to head right at us by late Wednesday through Thursday.

Along and west of the track of the upper low, dynamic cooling will produce snow. This whole system then turns into a nor’easter through the end of the week. The big question for us is does the upper low move in a way to give us snow? That’s a real possibility as of now and several models are latching on to this snow threat…

NAM through Thursday Morning…

GFS

New version of the GFS

ICON

This is an interesting system because those upper lows can produce a thumper of a snow right under them. That doesn’t mean it will be anywhere across Kentucky, but, if not, it’s going to be pretty darn close. It’s also interesting to see all models spitting out some sleet and freezing rain in our region.

Watch the northwestern sky for a clipper looking system to move in this weekend. That could bring another shot of flakes our way.

Updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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