Daily Archives: November 12, 2018

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Updating The Winter Weather Potential

Good evening, folks. It has been an absolutely dreary and cold day across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Some sleet and steady showers have been common, now we wait for some light snow to show up later tonight. This is kicking off a very active week that will throw a bigger winter weather system our way by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Let’s start with the first system that can throw some light snow in here later tonight. The best chance for some light snow is across the western and central parts of the state, oriented from southwest to northeast similar to the map I put out several days ago.

The GFS suggests some very light accumulations…

The short range Canadian has a little better coverage of that…

The new version of the GFS also has a little better coverage…

Moral of the story, I can’t rule out some slush accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces into western Kentucky and parts of central and  northern Kentucky.

The next storm system has the chance to bring a wintry mix into the region as early as Wednesday night. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow may develop on the leading edge of our precipitation shield during this time. From there, rain may take over for a while in central and eastern Kentucky, with a better snow chance in the west. As the low works through, wraparound snow may move across the rest of the state…

It’s very interesting to see the models spitting out some freezing rain this early in the year. Look at the European Model for Wednesday night…

Here’s the Freezing rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is similar…

The latest run of the GFS targets western Kentucky as being under and just west of the track of the upper low, giving more dynamic cooling for snow…

The European Model is a bit west with that…

It’s way too early in the season to be talking about precipitation types and the forecasting headaches that come with them. 🙁

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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