Daily Archives: December 16, 2018

Time posted: 8:37 pm

Sunday Night Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. Chalk this post up to “better late than never”. I told you I would be dropping by for another update and I’m a weatherdude of my word… Most of the time. 🙂

In the overall scheme of things, nothing has changes in regards to the late week system…

  • Time of impact is Thursday through early Saturday
  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues possible
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm.

If we look at the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, you can see how several of them are showing some of the backlash snow potential…

The late afternoon GFS didn’t have quite as much cold air coming in behind the storm as earlier runs…

On the flipside, the new version of the GFS had more cold air than earlier runs…

The late afternoon ICON model only goes through midday Friday, but has some backlash snows showing up…

The JMA doesn’t show precipitation, but check out the placement of that surface low and upper level low…

I’ll see you guys later tonight for a full update. Until then… peace and happiness. Take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:57 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Dreary and chilly weather continues across central and eastern Kentucky as the west gets a break. As better weather settles in for most in the coming days, another big storm system is going to develop and target the region later this week. That’s a storm that will impact millions of people across the eastern part of the country to begin the long Christmas weekend.

Let’s begin with the low clouds, fog and drizzle hanging around. This action is pretty much keeping the central and east locked in on some ugly. Temps are chilly in these areas, too. The NAM is keeping the dreary and chilly weather around over the next few days, while the GFS clears us out with seasonal temps. Come on GFS! 🙂

I have no changes on the late week storm system. This thing is going to be massive an impact about every state east of the Mississippi River. What kind of an impact it has on the weather where you live remains to be seen as we figure out how strong this gets and how much cold air it can wrap in from the northwest.

The GFS has a lot of rain and wind starting Thursday with rain changing to wraparound snows on Friday…

The ICON Model has a similar solution, but has a better period of wraparound snows than the GFS…

The new version of the GFS isn’t quite as strong and is a bit farther east, but still has some nice wraparound snows in the east…

The European Model covers a ton of real estate with this storm, but doesn’t have quite the cold air push behind the storm as the GFS models show…

The Canadian Model continues to be the jumpiest and weakest of the models and having a tough time pulling in colder air…

Some thoughts on this setup:

  • Time of impact is Thursday through early Saturday
  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues possible
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm.

What happens with that storm will impact what happens behind it for Christmas weekend into Christmas week. The Canadian Model has a nice little snow maker rolling in Christmas Eve and Day…

The GFS has a weaker version of that…

The European Model has been terribly inconsistent with the Christmas Weekend/Christmas Eve and Day look. Last night’s run at cold overwhelming the Ohio Valley. The new run has a weak system zipping through on Sunday…

Once again, there’s no shortage of action in the run up to Christmas and the holiday season. Will these systems be more Grinch than Bing Crosby? Time will tell.

Make it a good one and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 2:06 am

Focusing On The Next Storm Potential

Good Sunday, folks. Round of heavy rain have drenched much of the region over the past few days as a slow-moving upper low moved through. That system is moving away, with nice weather to follow to begin the new week. That good stuff isn’t going to last long as another powerhouse of a storm looks to develop by Thursday and Friday.

That has a pretty interesting look to it and I will talk more about that in a bit.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Leftover showers will be slow to depart the eastern half of the state as clouds linger through the afternoon. Western parts of the state may see some clearing, boosting temps into the low 50s there. Much of the rest of the state stays in  the seasonal 40s.

Here are your radars to track any leftover shower…

Temps over the next few days will be back in the 40s with lows hitting the 20s. Those numbers are about normal for this time of year.

Another big storm system targets the region and much of the eastern half of the country later this week. There’s a lot of energy swinging through during this time and how all that energy plays together will be the determining factor on the weather across Kentucky.

Check out the look of this system upstairs….

How all that translates to the surface remains to be seen. The GFS continues to develop a very deep low pressure that would bring wind and rain to snow across our region…

The ICON Model has a similar look, but watch it jump around with where to put the surface low or lows…

The European Model has a big, disruptive storm for a lot of people…

That’s one massive storm system in terms of how large it is!

The new version of the GFS has a similar overall look, but it’s all over the place trying to develop multiple lows…

The Canadian seems to be struggling most with this system and is showing the biggest swings from one run to the next…

The type of weather we get around here really depends on how all that upper level energy comes together. If you want more of a snow and winter aspect, you don’t want that energy spread out, you want more of a consolidated look.

How that system plays out will be the determining factor on how things play out a couple of systems coming behind it for later next weekend into Christmas.

Once again, there is NO shortage of action for us to track.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Sunday and take care.

17 Comments