Daily Archives: December 25, 2018

Time posted: 7:45 pm

Christmas Evening Update

Good evening and Merry Christmas, folks.¬† I wanted to drop by for a quick update on this super active weather pattern we are stuck in. It’s a pattern that will keep throwing systems our way as the overall setup turns much, much colder. Me thinks some fun and games are just around the corner.

The late week storm continues to look like a big wind and rain maker for our region…

A general 1″-2″ of rain may show up and we may even hear some thunder. Winds are going to be a major player and could gust to 50mph or greater from west to east as the front moves through…

Colder air continues to press in here this weekend into early next week as southern stream systems come out. The models aren’t handling these very well, but they’re seeing them…

See all that cold coming in by the middle of next week?

The GFS Ensembles are keying in on the cold shots taking control over the next few weeks…

With the cold shots showing up stronger and stronger, those same Ensembles are seeing more and more snow chances during the same time…

The European Ensembles are singing a similar tune…

It’s interesting to see both Ensembles suggesting snow chances well into the deep south.

Speaking of the Euro Ensembles, the expanded editions from WeatherBell are out and take us through the first few days of February. Here’s the average of the Ensembles…

The single run of the European Control builds a glacier…

If you watched my winter forecast from back in early November, you heard me talk about this being a second half loaded winter. Most of my primary analogs such as 77/78, 02/02, 09/10, 13.14 and 14/15 were loaded from January through March. The progression of this winter appears to be on track, but let’s see if the train can stay on the tracks and not derail. ūüôā

Merry Christmas and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

Merry Christmas Weather

Good Tuesday and Merry Christmas! I sincerely hope this is the best Christmas and holiday season ever for each of you. In terms of the weather, we have a weak system working across the state early today. That is touching off some light precipitation in a few spots.

Not everyone will see precip from this weak system, but some light rain may mix with a touch of sleet and light snow. Here’s regional radar to track the action…

As this system works through, temps rebound quickly on Wednesday and Thursday. Temps spike way up ahead of a potent plains storm system. That means showers and a few thunderstorms for our region…

Heavy rains may cause some additional high water concerns in some areas. Another 1″-2″ will be possible in a fairly short time period…

Colder air comes in behind this boundary and it comes at us in stages. This happens as the southern branch of the jet stream remains active and that means we have to be on guard for additional storm systems. These systems will show up on the various model runs, but will flip and flop in terms of track, intensity and precipitation types for us. Still, the setup is there for a busy period from late this weekend through the first few weeks of the new year…

A very cold pattern is likely to develop across the eastern half of the country as we head into January. Most of the medium range models, sans the GFS,¬†have been advertising this for a while now.¬†Check out the temperature departure on the new version of the GFS…

The European Ensembles are very bullish on the cold. Check out the 5 day averages from January 3-8…

European Ensembles Control

European Ensembles average

The bullseye is right on top of our region.

I will have an update at some point today. Until then, here are some travel tracking cams for this Christmas…

Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75/I-64 Southern Split Lexington

Georgetown

Between Frankfort and Midway

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

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E-town

Bowling Green

I-64 Morehead

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Merry Christmas and take care.

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