Daily Archives: January 2, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. It’s another round of rain impacting parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky. This is the first of two rounds of rain on the way before we hit the first weekend of the new year. Beyond that, the pattern shows signs of slowly changing.

Let’s start with this evening and the increase in rain for the south and southeast. Locally heavy downpours will carry us through the overnight with some local half inch+ amounts a good bet. Here’s regional radar for your tracking needs…

Thursday finds a break in the action, but clouds will be tough to break. Some rays of sun are possible, especially in the north, but I’m not holding my breath on that.

More rain rolls in here late Thursday night through Friday as low pressure rolls right on top of us…

Locally heavy rains are likely, leading to the potential for local high water issues for some.

Clouds clear out as Saturday rolls on as milder air moves into the region. That sets us up for a very nice Sunday, but an honest to goodness cold front moves in later Monday and early Tuesday…

Gusty showers may end as a few flakes with colder air coming in behind that.

After out temp drop, the numbers rebound quickly ahead of another cold front later in the week. The Euro even tries to amp up a low pressure along the boundary…

So, we can clearly see how the northern jet stream is trying to flex a little muscle for a change. That’s the first step in our change toward sustained winter weather.

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. We have another dreary day across Kentucky as 2019 picks up where 2018 left off. Rain is rolling into the south and east and comes at us in waves through early this weekend. This could bring another soaker to parts of the state.

Today’s rain is lined up from southwest to northeast and will mainly impact southern and eastern Kentucky. Outside of this region, drizzle and a few misty showers are a good bet…

Thursday will find us between systems, but it’s still a pretty ugly day. I can’t rule out a shower or some drizzle with the low clouds hanging tough.

As the next low spins right on top of us on Friday, another round of heavy rain is likely across the state. This may lead to more local high water issues.

The GFS has a sharp cutoff to the heaviest rains on the northern side…

The NAM is farther north and a little more choppy…

Low clouds and a seasonal chill is likely to remain behind that into Saturday, but temps jump back up for Sunday and Monday. That’s ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest. That’s right, an actual cold front from the northwest is going to make it through Kentucky early next week…

That’s followed by more of a northern stream influence with systems dropping into our region…

Getting these northern stream systems is a big step in the right direction. Obviously, those bring the missing ingredient back into the equation… Cold.

I will update things again this evening. Until then. have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Wednesday to one and all. 2019 is off and running on a rather gloomy note with… Wait for it… Wait for it… More rain rolling in. This rain comes in a couple of waves with the first impacting the south and east today and the next one areawide by Friday.

Where the heck is winter? As you know, my winter forecast was heavily weighted on winter arriving for the second half of the season. I’ll get to all that in a bit.

Let’s start with today’s rain rolling into parts of the state. This mainly impacts the south and east, but a few showers can’t be ruled out across the rest of the region. Here’s your regional radar to track whatever shows up:

Thursday will find just a shower chance across the region as our next system gets ready to roll in. This is the system the models had well off the southeastern seaboard up until a few days ago. Now? It’s so far west that it’s another rain maker for our region…

That system misses it’s connecting flight and just cannot get any cold air into it.

Once that goes by, temps turn mild for the weekend, before a greater change develops. That change means we actually slow down the southern storm brigade, leading to the northern branch to throw some systems our way…

That’s more of a back and forth pattern setting up next week, but those initial changes of slowing down the southern storm track are important and a sign of bigger changes ahead.

For the past few weeks, a lot of folks have been asking me about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the North Pole. This generally spits the Polar Vortex and sends it toward lower latitudes across the Northern Hemisphere. Much of that talk was based on model forecasts that were still a ways away from happening, so I didn’t even comment on it. Plus, the impact of such a split of the Polar Vortex isn’t even felt until a few weeks or so after it happens.

Well, that’s now upon us and Dr. Judah Cohen has the illustration…

If we look at the new European Weeklies from WeatherBell, we see the type of pattern you would expect from that. Here’s a 7 day temperature anomaly later this month…

7 day temp anomaly as we end January and head into early February…

And into the middle of February…

The snowfall from through this same time period…

This goes along with the seasonal analogs that I’ve talked about over the past few months. All are skewed toward the second half of winter. Plus, aren’t most of our winters of the past decade been late bloomers? 3 of the past 4 winters have featured historic snowstorms after January. Even the winter of 13/14 didn’t get kicking until the middle of January then didn’t stop until late March. Same thing with 08/09 and 09/10.  The only winter that kicked butt early was 10/11. 12/13 was just a “meh” winter that was normal-ish. The only horrible non-winters were 11/12 and 16/17.

Remember, seasonal forecasting is a marathon and not a spring. Everyone wants instant gratification, but the weather just does not work that way, especially in wintertime. 🙂

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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