Daily Archives: January 10, 2019

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Winter Storm Watch North

Good evening, folks. We continue to run in Winter Storm THREAT mode and now comes a Winter Storm Watch for far northern Kentucky. This is only the beginning as additional advisories/watches and warnings will be issued later tonight.

Here’s a look at where the initial watch is…

My thoughts from earlier have not changes, so I will spare you the long breakdown again. Here’re my current expectations with the initial round of snow from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning…

The rest of the forecast from Saturday afternoon through Sunday remains a little murky. That all depends on where the rain/snow line sets up…

The Hi Resolution RPM Model that’s run from WSI is showing the heaviest snow farther south than any other model and is more oriented toward the Interstate 64 corridor…

The  European model really blasts much of northern Kentucky…

The control run of the European Model (WeatherBell) is a little more expansive with the snow…

The average from the 51 members of the European Ensembles (WeatherBell)…

The GFS is finally starting to see the expanded precipitation shield every other model has been picking up on, but is still too disjointed…

 

Part of the problem with the GFS is the thermal profile. The model is showing freezing rain across Kentucky, but no other model is really showing much of that.

I will have the updates numbers tonight on WKYT-TV at 11 and on KWC later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:24 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for the northern half of the bluegrass state from Friday night through the upcoming weekend. In the overall scheme of things, I have no changes to how this looks to play out.

I’ll get to that in a moment, but we still have flurries and snow showers showing up across areas of central and eastern Kentucky…

As expected, we had some school delays earlier this morning as a few roads were coated in snow.

Moving on to the weekend winter storm. My threat area remains the same, with the northern half of the state in the line of fire…

I’ve talked about how we are likely to get three different waves of precipitation pushing across the state over the weekend. I’m going to handle them one at a time, but for the purpose of the First Call For Snowfall map, I’m ONLY talking about the first wave Friday night and Saturday morning…

That’s a pretty good swath of snow working from west to east during this time. The southern edge of that may have some rain or switch to rain, hence the lower amounts.

I will handle the snowfall forecasts for the other waves later tonight.

There’s likely to be a break in the action Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening, but the next wave moves in after that. That’s in the form of snow in the north and rain in the south and southeast.

Another light snow maker moves in late Sunday and Monday.

Remember, we are talking snowfall and not total snow depth. Wet snows compact quickly.

The latest computer models are pretty much holding their own compared to previous runs. One of these models is not like the others…

Candian

NAM

GFS

The GFS continues to show way less total precipitation than any other model. Not just across Kentucky, but for the entire storm system. Still, it’s finally seeing the northern Kentucky snow better than prior runs.

Some thoughts to remember:

  • The farther north you live the better the chance of picking up several inches of snow.
  • Areas across southern Kentucky may not see much in the way of snow after Friday night. Even then, it’s light.
  • This system comes at us in waves.
  • Snowfall does not equal snow depth.
  • A one degree difference is all it takes to more the forecast lines north or south. One stinking degree.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:31 am

Winter Storm Threat Northern Half Of Kentucky

Good Thursday, folks. It’s a full blown Winter Storm THREAT for the coming weekend as a messy/snowy system rolls into the region. The THREAT simply means there is the potential for several inches of snow to impact parts of the region, especially the northern half of the state.

Before we get to that system, our day is starting with snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky. Light accumulations are being noted, causing some slick travel conditions. A few delays or cancellations are very possible as this action develops on a northwest wind…

I made a map last weekend that outlined our northwest flow event for this week. A cold northwest wind off Lake Michigan is a snow shower and flurry maker in our region.

This is the opening act to our weekend winter storm. I’m still rolling with this general theme…

Again, all of that is subject to be moved a little farther north or south with future updates today and Friday.

Here’s a breakdown of how things stand:

  • This is a Friday night through Sunday night event that may actually include 3 different waves of precipitation.
  • The first wave arrives from west to east late Friday evening into Saturday morning and is mainly in the form of snow. This likely delivers accumulations to areas of western, central and northern parts of the state. Some of that may make it into the east and southeast.
  • That Friday night/Saturday morning setup has a chance to overachieve.
  • There may be a lull in precipitation for a time Saturday afternoon and evening, with mainly rain falling across the southern half of the state. That rain line may get as far north as the Interstate 64 corridor for a time.
  • As the second low passes to our southeast Saturday night and early Sunday, the next wave of precipitation really kicks in. This may still be in rain form across the southern half of the state, with snow across the northern half.
  • A third, weaker, system develops Sunday night into Monday with light snow across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Given the fact this will be a roughly 3 day event, snow depth may never actually match snowfall. I haven’t even mentioned any kind of totals at this point, but should have a First Call For Snowfall around noon or so.
  • Moral of the story, the farther north you go in the state, the better the chance for several inches of snow. The farther south, that potential goes way, way down.
  • NONE OF THIS MEANS YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WHERE YOU LIVE. 🙂

Let’s do a quick check of what the various computer models are showing. The European Model keeps spitting out a decent hit for much of the region, with the emphasis on the northern half of the state. Here are two different snowfall maps from the same run. One uses the standard 10 to 1 ratio while the other uses the Kuchera ratio…

10-1

Kuchera Ratio

Keep in mind those are snowfall numbers through Monday.

The Canadian Model is in very good agreement with the European…

The NAM is a funky model with snow setups like this because it loves to overdue warm air advection, which leads to anomalously high precipitation totals. The run only goes through Sunday morning, but fell in love with north central Kentucky…

Again, the NAM is VERY likely overdoing things and is the model voted most likely to have wild swings from run to run. 🙂

That brings us to the GFS, which seems to be having issues of the opposite kind. It continues to run much drier with this storm than every other model. It’s snow shield looks undercooked in all areas on the map…

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So, the European and Canadian Models are very similar to one another, while the American models look nothing alike. Maybe that whole government shutdown thing really is impacting the American models?

I will have another update later today, so check back. Until then, have a good one and take care.

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