Daily Archives: January 16, 2019

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Updating The Weekend Setup

Good evening, folks. It’s another dreary day that’s wrapping up across the region as we wait on another system to bring rain and a touch of snow in here late tonight and Thursday. That’s the opening act for a MUCH bigger storm moving in over the weekend. That will bring some trouble to much of the region.

Let me talk briefly about the weak system later tonight and Thursday. This is mainly a light rain maker, but northern and northeastern Kentucky may see a period of light snow or a mix early in the day. Some light accumulations will  be possible.

For the weekend, it remains about the track of two lows. The first low works across the state and weakens on Saturday as another low takes over to the south and southeast. How all this plays out will be the determining factor on how much of each precipitation form  you get where you live.

My ranking of the biggest impacts the same as earlier…

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The European Model continues to be farther south with the whole setup, giving the region more of a winter weather hit…

This is all very similar to what the model was showing with the last run, so it’s not like the model is waffling much at all. Taken verbatim, the European Model shows 2″-3″ of rain on Saturday, with a period of freezing rain then accumulating snow Saturday night.

The temperatures on the Euro are impressive. Watch this drop that will lead to a major freeze up…

The only way our numbers get that cold on Monday morning is if there’s a decent snow on the ground. Obviously, the European Model thinks that’s the case.

The first model to show the more southerly track was the UKMET. That model only gives me forecast for certain time increments from this range and doesn’t give us the fancy maps like the other models. The model still has the southerly track of the low. The below maps are Friday evening, Saturday morning and Sunday morning…

The JMA has a similar track in 24 hour increments…

The new version of the GFS is still a bit farther north because it’s putting more emphasis on the lead low…

The GFS is also putting more emphasis on that lead low, but is also just way too fast with the overall system and has no friends for this run…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take are.

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