Daily Archives: January 16, 2019

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Updating The Weekend Setup

Good evening, folks. It’s another dreary day that’s wrapping up across the region as we wait on another system to bring rain and a touch of snow in here late tonight and Thursday. That’s the opening act for a MUCH bigger storm moving in over the weekend. That will bring some trouble to much of the region.

Let me talk briefly about the weak system later tonight and Thursday. This is mainly a light rain maker, but northern and northeastern Kentucky may see a period of light snow or a mix early in the day. Some light accumulations will  be possible.

For the weekend, it remains about the track of two lows. The first low works across the state and weakens on Saturday as another low takes over to the south and southeast. How all this plays out will be the determining factor on how much of each precipitation form  you get where you live.

My ranking of the biggest impacts the same as earlier…

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The European Model continues to be farther south with the whole setup, giving the region more of a winter weather hit…

This is all very similar to what the model was showing with the last run, so it’s not like the model is waffling much at all. Taken verbatim, the European Model shows 2″-3″ of rain on Saturday, with a period of freezing rain then accumulating snow Saturday night.

The temperatures on the Euro are impressive. Watch this drop that will lead to a major freeze up…

The only way our numbers get that cold on Monday morning is if there’s a decent snow on the ground. Obviously, the European Model thinks that’s the case.

The first model to show the more southerly track was the UKMET. That model only gives me forecast for certain time increments from this range and doesn’t give us the fancy maps like the other models. The model still has the southerly track of the low. The below maps are Friday evening, Saturday morning and Sunday morning…

The JMA has a similar track in 24 hour increments…

The new version of the GFS is still a bit farther north because it’s putting more emphasis on the lead low…

The GFS is also putting more emphasis on that lead low, but is also just way too fast with the overall system and has no friends for this run…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take are.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s ANOTHER cold and dreary day with a few rain and snow showers floating about the area. From here, we have system moving through on Thursday, with a much bigger system on track for the weekend. That one is likely to cause some problems in our region.

First things first, let’s track today’s light rain and snow showers…

Low pressure works into the region on Thursday and is mainly a light rain maker, but a period of light snow is possible at the start. The best chance of seeing this is in the north and northeast…

GFS

NAM

If it does snow in those areas, it should be light and then move away pretty quickly as light rain takes over.

My view on the weekend system really hasn’t changed much at all. It’s a setup that should deliver all modes of precipitation to the bluegrass state. Saturday brings heavy rain with the potential for flooding. Temps crash Saturday evening with rain changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, then snow. Snow showers and squalls would then carry us through Sunday afternoon.

Here’s the latest GFS starting at 7pm Saturday and going through Sunday afternoon…

The new version of the GFS is similar…

Let’s rank the weekend based on greatest impact potential:

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

I’m back on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have the latest then. I will also have another update here later this evening.

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Tracking The Weekend System

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our super-active weather pattern shows no signs of letting up as we track 3 systems between now and the weekend, with the biggest rolling in this weekend. That one will throw everything our way, including heavy rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Oh… and a shot of arctic cold temps.

Today’s system is light, but can pack a few rain or snow showers…

The Thursday system works in here with mainly rain, but the snow pack to our north and west will keep temps colder across areas of northern Kentucky. That may mean some light snow or a mix on the leading edge of that early Thursday. The NAM fam is trying to show some light accumulations in the north and northeast…

As we get closer to this system, the forecast numbers from the model have come down and I suspect it’s because they are just now sensing the extent of the aforementioned snow pack.

Just because they’re colder for this first system doesn’t necessarily mean they will have the same issue with the weekend setup. But, it does give us something to think about and that’s why I’ve thrown that out there for the past few days.

As of this writing, the NAM only goes through Saturday morning. While it’s not terribly reliable from this range, it is showing the storm starting much farther south than many medium range models have been suggesting…

My thought process has been that we get two lows out of this weekend system. One develops and works into southeastern Kentucky Saturday, with a second low developing east or southeast of it by Saturday night. In that scenario, we would have the potential for flooding rains Saturday, with mix threat north, then a quick change to freezing rain sleet and snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow showers and squalls would then be around Sunday afternoon on a strong northwest wind. Even if that theory is correct, it’s still too early for any specific totals of each precipitation type. Any amount of snow or ice depends on a ton of variables, so let’s just hang tight and watch the trends of the next few days. Do not short change the potential for high water ahead of any frozen stuff.

The European Model is back to showing what it had a few days ago, which is a colder solution that basically follows the outline I just gave…

The latest GFS also came a little farther south and has the 2 low scenario…

The UKMET only gives us 24 hour increments and doesn’t spit out the fancy maps like the other models. Still, it continues with a farther south storm track. These maps represent Friday evening, Saturday evening and Sunday evening…

The Canadian Model is not on board with the farther south scenario, but is showing some weird jumps with the low pressure…

That’s probably a sign the model is seeing different pressure falls, but doesn’t quite know how to handle them all.

The new version of the GFS is also still north…

So, let’s see if the colder and farther south trend is real or just a small hiccup in the modelling world.

I will throw you updates later today, so stop back in. Until then, have a great one and take care.

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