Daily Archives: October 29, 2019

Time posted: 7:51 pm

Updating The Storm Ahead

Good evening, folks. Our big storm system is getting closer and closer and is going to have a major impact on our weather for Wednesday and Halloween. This will bring a lot of different weather to the region, with heavy rain, strong storms, gusty winds, crashing temps and an outside chance for a few snowflakes.

Let’s review the headlines…

  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Marginal Risk for severe storms…

  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We will be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s by late afternoon and early evening. Check out the temp trend from 8am Thursday through 11pm Thursday evening…
  • Wind chill temps will be even colder and absolutely frigid for this time of year…
  • There continues to be a small chance for the cold air to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield by Halloween evening. That could bring a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky. The Hi Res NAM continues to see a couple of flakes…

The Canadian sees a little better chance…

So does the GFS…

So, there are multiple models spitting out the first flakes of the season. Again… It would just be a few flakes if we get them, but that’s still pretty awesome to see.

I will see you guys for another update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:13 pm

Thoughts On The Halloween Howler

Good evening, folks. It’s another really nice fall day, but this is going away very quickly as a big storm system rolls our way. This will bring some very ugly weather for Wednesday and Halloween before a cold November kicks off on Friday.

I’m not going to totally rehash everything I’ve talked about with each post for the past week. Instead, let’s break it down by my confidence level:

  1. (Tie) Heavy rainfall from 1″-3″ through Halloween
  2. (Tie) Temperature crash on Halloween. Readings drop from the 60s in the morning to the 30s by evening and then into the 20s that night.
  3. Gusty winds of greater than 30mph-40mph will be possible.
  4. Strong to locally severe storms. The low-end risk is there on Wednesday and then again early Thursday in the east. Damaging wind is the primary threat.
  5. The first flakes mixing in with the rain Halloween evening. It’s the lowest risk of the bunch, but a few flakes may show up across the central and eastern part of the state.

Here’s the evolution of it all from the GFS…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through around 8pm on Halloween, but you can see how the model is showing a few flakes firing up at that time…

The temperature crash is dramatic..

Hello, wind chills…

As far as the severe storms potential, the Storm Prediction Center has a low end severe weather risk for most of the state for Wednesday…

Additional blasts of cold are on the way this weekend through next week and this may include some clippers diving into the area from the northwest.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another update on KWC later this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:45 am

Scaring Up Some Wild Weather For Halloween

Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to track a potent storm system blowing in here for Wednesday and Halloween. This will likely bring heavy rain, strong storms, gusty winds, a big temp crash and even the potential for a few snowflakes for some.

We have a lot to talk about so let’s get after it.

The whole evolution of this storm hasn’t changed since I first started talking about it last week. Let me hit ya with some fast and furious thoughts to set it up…

  • The arctic front is stalled just to our west.
  • A moisture rich southwesterly flow kicks on ahead of this over the next few days.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon.
  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We will be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s by evening.
  • There continues to be a small chance for the cold air to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield by Halloween evening. That could bring a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky.

Here’s the evolution of the show setup on the GFS…

Heavy rainfall is likely, with widespread 1″-3″ rain amounts showing up…

Those totals would put many cities into the top 10 or top 5 wettest Octobers on record.

Can we get a few flakes out of this setup on Halloween evening? It’s a possibility, but I can’t say it’s close to being a likelihood. The pattern has been suggesting this as a possibility for a while and the models finally started seeing the possibility a few days ago. The NAM shows the potential for a few flakes across the central and east…

Again, we are talking about just a CHANCE for a few FLAKES mixing in for a brief time. Still… It’s pretty awesome to be tracking the possibility before October is finished.

Something else that’s awesome? The temperature drop. Watch the numbers from early Thursday through Thursday evening with the 20s by Friday morning…

Those wind chill numbers are a big old OUCH…

As far as the potential for strong to severe storms, the chance is there by Wednesday afternoon then again early on Halloween. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a low end risk for severe on Wednesday…

Here’s the risk area for Halloween…

Behind all this is a very cold start to November with deep troughs controlling the pattern. We may even be talking about some early season clipper action.

Given the busy storm ahead, today is a three update kinda day here on KWC. I should have your next update around noon, so check back.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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