Daily Archives: November 17, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Here’s hoping you had an absolutely fantastic weekend. In terms of the weather, it averaged colder than normal, but things still were pretty nice. As we head into the week ahead, the pattern gets more active and ti’s a setup that continues to throw models for a loop.

Let’s start with the setup for the next couple of days. A couple of clipper looking systems are diving in here from the northwest. They don’t have much moisture and will give us quite the temperature spread across the state. A couple of periods of showers will move through, but not everyone sees the action. Most of this is in chilly rain form, but a mix of a few light snow showers will try to show up. You can see what I’m talking about on the Canadian…

The American Models are still having a tough time seeing these as they are moving in. Here’s regional radar to track the action in from the west…

Most of the models continue to ride the struggle bus as with the late week and weekend systems. I’m going to keep saying it, but there’s so much energy showing up, the models flip with their solutions with each run. I still like the front moving in here on Thursday with rain and milder air ahead of it and the potential for a few flakes behind it on Friday. Even if we get those flakes, that’s not a big deal because the next system moves in quickly behind it for the weekend. The track of that low will be interesting to track as it looks like a system that can produce a lot of different weather with it.

Here’s the Canadian…

This may be the first system where it’s all about the track of the low. 🙂

The setup behind this is likely to produce a significant system Thanksgiving week, but that’s about as much as I can even think about at this time. The Ensembles continue to paint a cold picture as we roll later into Thanksgiving week and into the first few days of December…

I’ll see y’all back for a full update later tonight. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s been a calm and seasonally chilly weekend across Kentucky, but things are looking to change with the new week. The action is going to pick up as we track a few week systems to start the week and a bigger system to end it. This looks to lead us into a wintry pattern for Thanksgiving week.

Our Sunday is pretty decent, so get out and enjoy.

The clouds you see increasing today are ahead of a couple of systems diving in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. Those systems won’t have a lot of moisture to work with but could touch off a rain or snow shower, especially Monday night and early Tuesday.

The American models seem to be struggling to see these systems. Notice the difference between the NAM…

And the Euro…

This air really isn’t that cold and, given the nature of these systems, we would see quite the temp spread across the state.

Temps by the middle of the week may actually feel pretty good as we wait on the late week system. Once again, we are finding the models trying to figure out what happens with that system and the one behind it for next weekend.  The one next weekend has the most potential for some winter weather. The Euro keeps showing our possibility…

Here’s the current Canadian…

The GFS Ensembles average 7 day 500mb mean anomalies show a colder than normal and likely stormy pattern from Thanksgiving week into the first couple days of December…

I’ll have another update late this afternoon or evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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