Daily Archives: November 23, 2019

Time posted: 8:00 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the flakes flying tonight and for the continuing super active pattern and what is looking like a cold and possibly snowy December.

Temps keep dropping this evening as the low goes by to our northeast. That will allow for some flakes to mix in with the showers across the north then we should see a few snow showers and flurries tonight across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s regional radar to help ya out…

Our next storm system continues to look potent in the plains on Tuesday then into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. That means a strong cold front moves sweeps across Kentucky, bringing showers and thunderstorms rolling across the state. This also looks like a big time wind maker around here too.

It will then be followed by a weaker setup that tries to throw a little precip in here late Wednesday into Thanksgiving. You can see both of those on the GFS…

As we get deeper into Thanksgiving weekend, we find another big storm system targeting our region. This one will bring the potential for high winds and strong storms ahead of it, and a big temp crash and some snow behind it. This unleashes a cold pattern to start December…

The CFS seasonal model is seeing the arctic shots in December. Look at these weekly average temp departures…

December 2-9

Let’s skip ahead to the middle of the month…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 pm

Some Flakes To Fly Tonight

Good afternoon, folks. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… It’s another dreary day in the bluegrass state. Low pressure is working quickly through the state and it’s bringing rain and some thunder, gusty winds, a big temp swing and, eventually, some snow showers and flurries.

Showers will continue this afternoon as gusty winds usher in falling temps from northwest to southeast. Here’s your regional radar to track the action…

We are likely to see an area of light snow and flurries develop late this evening across the north. From there, snow showers and flurries move from northwest to southeast across central and eastern Kentucky. Some light slush may show up on grassy and elevated surfaces overnight. The NAM fam continues to show this potential…

Hi Res NAM

NAM

As that moves away early Sunday, seasonally cold temps will be noted as we turn our attention to the next system. This arrives on Tuesday and is likely to bring showers and thunderstorms and very gusty winds with it. A temps spike will then be followed by a temp crash Tuesday night into the big travel day on Wednesday…

Winds of greater than 40mph may cause some issues with the passing of that system. Seasonally cold temps will be noted for Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. That’s when some moisture tries to make another run at us. This is looking a little better organized with each run and could even deliver a brief mix as it runs into dry air…

Another major storm system then develops and works this way into next weekend. That could bring us a lot of rain, strong storms, high winds, a major temp crash and some snow…

That’s a nice start to December!

I will have another update later today, so check back. Until then…

(Ok, so I lied :))

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:13 am

Gusty Rains Before Some Flakes Fly

Good Saturday, everyone. Low pressure is working across the state, bringing gusty rains and the potential for some snowflakes to fly by tonight. This continues to be part of the hyper-active pattern I’ve been yapping about and things look busy into Thanksgiving week. The tail end of the big holiday weekend sees changes settle in and those will likely lead us into a lot of winter weather for December.

Rain increases quickly from southwest to northeast this morning and could be heavy at times, especially in the southeast. Winds will also be gusty with one heck of a temperature spread from one side of our low to the other.

Regional radar should be rather colorful today…

The potential is there for a comma head of snow to develop on the backside of our low, but much of that looks to be north of the Ohio River. Still, that may deliver a glancing shot to far northern Kentucky. As the upper low moves over central and eastern Kentucky this evening and tonight, some snow showers and flurries are likely to fly…

Can some areas get a some slush from that? Sigh… It’s possible, I suppose, but don’t hold your breath on it.

That action moves away fairly quickly on Sunday, but chilly temps remain. Gusty winds through the weekend will make it feel colder than what your thermometer shows.

As we head into Thanksgiving week, we continue to see the models going back toward the big plains storm idea. I warned you this would happen with the models… They can’t handle all this energy, especially during the seasonal change period.

Here’s the low on the GFS…

For us, that looks to be a big wind maker from Tuesday into Wednesday…

This will also produce showers and a couple of thunderstorms as the front moves in. Colder air comes in behind that, but it’s only a seasonal brand of cold that takes us through Thanksgiving Day.

A weak system coming out of the southwest tries to make a run at us on Wednesday…

That likely falls apart, but it bears watching. From there, we have to watch the setup coming late in our holiday weekend. That’s when another big storm system develops in the plains and pushes east. This storm will be the catalyst to unlock arctic air into the first week of December. You can see this on the GFS…

The European Model is very similar…

It can get REALLY cold…

Things are likely to get very interesting in December.

One more time (I promise), in case you guys missed the winter forecast, the Kentucky Weather Podcast has the highlights and I talk about the whys behind the outlook. Give it a listen…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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