Daily Archives: December 9, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We continue to watch a big time cold front working in here from the west. Temps are near 60 ahead of this, but are dropping more than 30 degrees behind it. Gusty winds are stirring up some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

That’s what you all are here to talk about… Right? 🙂

The potential for snow and some sleet is what’s getting everyone’s attention for Tuesday and Tuesday night. I’ve made some minor adjustments from earlier on the snow map, shifting things just a little southeast…

That’s not the final call by any means and I will change it up again as new data comes in this evening. I will have that on WKYT-TV at 11.

The models still aren’t playing nice with one another. The GFS continues to have the most widespread snowfall of any of the models…

The Short Range Canadian is a little east, but it’s snowy…

The European Model continues to be more progressive and toward the lower end of the snow numbers…

The European Ensembles is similar…

The NAM continues to look choppy and has the least amount of overall coverage of any model. It still spits out some 3″+ totals…

I will update things later tonight and through the day on Tuesday. Here are your evening tracking toys…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:02 pm

First Call For Snowfall

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a windy and sometimes wet day across the bluegrass state as we get ready for a blast of winter weather. This moves in on Tuesday and carries us into Tuesday night with rain changing to sleet and snow then snow.

I’m taking a conservative approach with my First Call For Snowfall…

You can see the headlines I’ve added to the map. We will see one heck of a cutoff on the western side of this and pinpointing where this sets up is a pain in the keester. We will also see rain change to sleet and snow. How long it stays sleet in any one location will impact totals. I’ve added a locally higher to the 1″-4″ region in case some of these areas switch a little quicker. Again, this is a First Call, not a Last Call. I guarantee I will be making adjustments to the lines and totals before the day is over. 🙂

It is interesting to note the WPC is highlighting a large chunk of the state with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The GFS continues to be right in line with this thinking…

If we take that map and match it with the average from the 21 member SREF, we find a very similar look…

Again, that’s smoothed out because it’s averaging 21 different runs.

The Canadian Model isn’t too far off from the GFS and SREF…

The Short Range Canadian is also similar…

 The NAM continues to target southeastern Kentucky with the snow and sleet. This run looks choppy with the snowfall…

Here’s the sleet forecast from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is also targeting the southeastern part of the state with the best snow potential…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and on KWC later this evening. In the meantime, here are your radars to keep you company…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Rain To A Winter Weather Event

Good Monday, everybody. It’s full steam ahead toward a winter weather event moving in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely bring snow and sleet to a good portion of the region and the potential is there for several inches for some. That said, I’m still trying to figure out exactly where to draw the lines, so no WST just yet. That may change with the next update. 🙂

We have rain pushing across the state today as mild temps continue. There’s even the chance for a little bit of thunder.

As far as the Tuesday-Tuesday night winter weather is concerned, let’s keep this map rolling…

Before we take a look at the latest models,here are a few thoughts:

  • Temps crash from west to east tonight into early Tuesday.
  • Rain will change to a wintry mix of sleet and snow then to snow as the cold moves in and a weak wave develops along the boundary.
  • Exactly where this happens still has some wiggle room, but much of the precipitation is into central and eastern Kentucky when this takes place.
  • Snowfall numbers of a few to several inches will be possible, especially in the southeast.
  • Sleet may also show up and if it does, it will cut into the snowfall numbers.
  • Whatever happens with this, it’s going to have a big time cutoff line on the western side of it all.
  • A First Call For Snowfall map comes later today.

As far as the models are concerned, we didn’t see much change in the respective models compared to what they were showing earlier.

The GFS continues to show a more widespread event…

GFS Snow Map

The Euro continues to be less widespread and less impressed…

Euro Snow Map

I won’t lie, the Euro was the only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger with this update. I have to give it some respect, but it’s still a nice snow in the southeast.

The Canadian Model is a little more like the GFS…  Canadian Snow Map

The Short Range Canadian continues to hit this harder than most of the models…

Short Range Canadian Snow Map

Here’s the sleet map from that same run

The NAM is in a similar boat…

NAM Snow Map

NAM Sleet Map

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your Monday rain tracking toys to keep you company…

toys…

Make it a good one and take care.

36 Comments