Daily Archives: December 12, 2019

Time posted: 7:40 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We are on guard for some light freezing rain early tomorrow across the valleys of eastern Kentucky. This kicks off a super busy weekend with two more systems ready to impact our weather with a mixed bag of weather.

Watch for the icy glaze potential if you’re going to be traveling in the morning across the eastern half of the state. I’m a little surprised there isn’t a precautionary Winter Weather Advisory for this area because just a small amount of freezing rain can lead to big issues. Actually I’m not surprised. Carry on. 🙂

As the second system works in here Saturday and may have just enough cold air for a pocket or two of some snow. The NAM keeps showing this…

Other models aren’t as enthused with those pockets of snow, through. Still, it’s a pretty ugly looking day.

This brings us to the Sunday-Monday storm system. This looks to come at us in two waves. The first arrives later Sunday and should be in the form of rain, snow and a mix as it spreads from west to east. Then, the main low rolls across eastern Kentucky into West Virginia. The model temp profiles are still a work in progress with this.

Here’s the Euro…

That’s a pretty flat looking system as it takes the path we talked about. Don’t get too caught up yet on exact precipitation types as the models try to figure out the thermal profiles.

The ICON Model can only show rain or snow and can’t show any kind of mix, sleet or freezing rain. It’s the flattest model …

Then there’s the GFS still being the strongest and farthest north and west. Still, the model is slowly coming south and east…

I’ll update things later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Light Freezing Rain Possible For Some

Good afternoon, everyone. As precipitation moves into the region late tonight and early Friday, temps will be cold enough for a touch of freezing rain to show up. This kicks off a super-active setup that takes us through the weekend into early next week. It’s one that will deliver more winter weather threats.

The best chance for freezing rain early Friday is in the cold valleys across the east. This is something that models rarely pick up on, but we are actually seeing a few of them showing the potential…

All it takes is a little bit of ice to cause some big travel issues. That should switch over to plain old rain as temps come up later in the morning and into the afternoon.

A second system then works in here late Saturday with rain that can go over to a little bit of snow showing up as temps drop by Saturday evening. Here’s the NAM with both systems over the next few days…

The models continue to figure out the Sunday-Monday system and the GFS is slowly correcting toward the southeast with the track of the low. It still have quite a bit of work to do, though…

That will continue to come south and so will the Canadian…

Once again, all modes of precipitation are possible across the area from Sunday through early Tuesday.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm and here on KWC this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:00 am

Watching Several Systems Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. It’s a good looking day taking shape, but some big changes are on the way starting tomorrow. That’s when the first of several systems rolls into the region. Each of these systems will have a winter weather component to them, but the late Sunday-Monday system appears to be the one to watch.

Let’s begin with system number one moving in from the south late tonight and Friday morning. Temps will be near the freezing mark Friday morning so this could cause some areas of freezing rain to develop, especially in the colder valleys.

Chilly showers take over from there across central and eastern Kentucky during the afternoon and evening. That system moves away by Saturday morning, but another system dives in from the northwest with rain and the potential for a little snow.

The NAM is showing a little better snow chance than most…

Meh, we shall see about that.

Colder air comes in behind this, setting the stage for our next system set to impact our weather from late Sunday through early Tuesday. All modes of precipitation are on the table for Kentucky. I’ve said that for days now, but the only thing some folks will take from that is the word snow. Yes, snow is possible as it is a mode,but I don’t think that’s the sole precip type.

The European continues to show this setup well…

This is like a low that runs toward West Virginia and may even trend a bit south as the models pick up on some blocking.

The Canadian Model is similar to the Euro, but a bit north…

The GFS continues to be the GFS  with the low going to the Great Lakes…

Again, that’s not a likely scenario as of now.

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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