Good Friday, folks. We have an absolutely gorgeous weather day across the region today. My advice to you is to get out and enjoy it… Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are ready to blow back into the bluegrass state over the weekend.

Highs today will run from the low 70s in the northeast to near 80 in the south and far west. Skies will stay partly sunny with clouds increasing from the west during the afternoon and evening.

Showers and storms move in on Saturday and the Hi-Res NAM is showing some hot spots of torrential rains …

NAM

That model did a fairly good job in showing the high totals with the last few rounds of storms, so it may be onto something for Saturday. A few of those storms could also be strong.

Additional showers and storms hang around into Sunday with the models showing a general inch or two of rain for the weekend…

Canadian

From there, much cooler air is likely to take over as we go into the first week of May. The Ensembles agree on a big dip in the jet stream through Kentucky Derby Week…

GFS 4

GFS 3

Those are two separate model runs, but they are nearly identical! That’s a pretty high confidence look for cooler than normal temperatures. As a matter of fact, the operational run of the GFS continues to indicate a couple mornings COULD be close to patchy frost levels.

The first comes by Tuesday morning…

GFS Temps

The next threat arrives behind this front…

GFS

The temps behind that for Friday morning…

GFS Temps 2

This stormy pattern leading to a colder setup for Derby week has been talked about here for the past few weeks. 😉

Make it a great Friday and take care.