Holiday Weekend Heavy Rain Threat

Good Friday, everyone. Our long 4th of July holiday weekend is kicking off with some changes pushing into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ushering in a pattern that grows much more stormy in the days to come. This has the potential to cause some flooding issues later in the weekend and into next week.

Today’s action is rather scattered with temperatures mainly from 80-85 for most areas…

Saturday’s weather actually looks pretty nice with low humidity levels and temps ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s across the state. A late day shower or thunderstorm will be possible, especially in the west and south.

From there, rounds of storms look to rumble across the region. These storms may be feeding on a MEGA temperature gradient setting up on Sunday. Check this out…

Here’s the European Model from Sunday afternoon through Monday night…

A few of the storms could be strong, but the heavy rain threat is what continues to get my attention. The flash flood threat may extend from Missouri all the way to the Appalachian Mountains. Exactly where the corridor of heaviest rain sets up is still to be determined, but the latest runs seem to be showing a similar trend.

GFS Rainfall through Tuesday…

Canadian Model through the same period…

You can now see why I have been talking about this since last weekend. Please keep checking back for updates on this potential high water maker.

Heat is going to try to build in for the middle and end of next week. Ahead of this, we may see rounds of thunderstorms diving in here from the northwest…

That setup may not be too dissimilar from the one we had a week and a half ago.

The heat will finally build in for a few days by the end of the week…

That isn’t going to last very long as a deep trough is forecast to dive in here a few days later. Watch the transition…

That would send temperatures back into the below normal category for several days into the middle of July.

Have a great Friday and take care.