Good Thursday, folks. We have a potent cold front moving into the region, touching off additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms out there today could be on the strong side and put down heavy rainfall. Wait… you’ve heard that before this summer?
I will have your tracking tools coming up in a bit. First, let’s focus on where this pattern may take us over the next week and change.
The cold front moves through and slows down across the Tennessee Valley. This allows for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. Exactly where this front stops is the big determining factor on how wet we are around here. Some of the latest models are a little farther south than earlier runs. Still, some scattered showers and storms show up Friday into part of Saturday…
Some better weather may try to sneak in here later Saturday into Sunday. I’ll take that and run with it… If it can happen.
Storms will dive in here from the northwest early next week as heat builds in across the plains states…
The models continue to advertise a week two heat wave around here. Those have no shown up, so far, this summer. That could change in the next few weeks. Since spring, I’ve targeted the second half of summer for the potential of our first real deal heat since 2012. This is why I’m going to give the models a little more credence during this time.
The GFS for the end of next week…
The European Model isn’t as robust, but still brings the heat…
I leave you with today’s storm tracking toys…
Today’s risk area
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a great day and take care.
I don’t often comment, but a huge Thank You Chris!
Well, we are rather overdue for a heatwave as CB touched on. Anyway, thanks Chris for the heads up!
Anything over 80F is a heatwave to me. From reading this blog over the years, I was under the impression that it’s hard to get a heat wave when there has been a lot of rain and lush vegetation.
TRUE! Interesting point!
It perhaps takes a “perfect storm” of conditions, but at any rate the deadly 1995 heatwave had both extreme heat and extreme dew points. Incredibly, parts of Wisconsin had dew point temperatures into the low 80s, and Milwaukee’s air temperature hit 106 degrees on one day…..without even considering the humidity.
Chicago alone had around 600 fatalities.
Unfortunately, looks like next week’s heatwave may also be both very hot and very humid. Time will tell how much this heatwave effects Kentucky and Tennessee.
This is true but a pattern flip looks to be taking place. Instead of the almost daily thunderstorms we have been experiencing, our weather might become hot and dry. The high pressure looks incredibly strong so blowtorch should be in full affect. If the high is as strong as expected no cool fronts will remotely make it to our area.
95 degree air temperature over a dewpoint of, say, 73, isn’t ideal but it’s a whole lot better than negative numbers…
Definitely heat advisory criteria here I won’t argue that. Just to our west those states will see excessive heat warnings. If the pattern comes into fruition.
The Storm Prediction Center is giving a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued for much of Kentucky and Tennessee.