Good Friday to one and all. The big change is finally here with much colder air taking control of the pattern across our part of the world. This change delivered some beneficial rains to the region, and we have more out there today for some.

I promised you some winter talk, but I want to focus some on the short range before we get to that.

Gusty showers will be located across much of central and eastern Kentucky to start the day. Those showers will slowly taper from west to east into the afternoon, but the east may not shake the rain until evening. Highs will range from the low and mid 50s east to near 60 in the west. Winds are going to continue to be very gusty.

Temperatures by Saturday morning will drop into the mid and upper 30s for most of the state. I’m not expecting much in the way of frost as winds will likely stay a bit too high for that to happen. The rest of Saturday is windy with highs mainly in the 50s.

Sunday looks good with low and middle 60s ahead of a weak front passing by just to our north. That will knock the numbers back down a few degrees later Monday and Tuesday. I could even see a touch of frost developing by Tuesday morning.

The next system works in here later Wednesday and Thursday. This could be a rain maker for much of the region with a colder blast of air to follow…

canadianAs we look ahead toward the start of November, we find 3 of the big 4 indicies with a cold look…

ao

A +PNA, -NAO and -AO are all favorable for increasing cold shots across the eastern half of the country. The EPO is still forecast to be positive. If we can get that to flip to negative… look out. There are indications we see that once into November.

Okay, let’s talk winter.

Snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere is off to a fast start…

current-snow

That’s well above normal in many areas…

current-snow-2

Dr. Judah Cohen has become very popular over the years for his forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Polar Vortex. He has some interesting theories about the buildup of October snow cover in Eurasia and how it may impact the winter ahead. His forecast is for a cold central and eastern United States. Here’s the outlook and his summation…

cohen

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures – especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

That’s a heckuva winter Dr. Cohen is going for. The above map looks like several of the analog years I’ve been hinting at over the past few months. One thing I feel pretty good about is a fast start to winter. I will be surprised if we don’t have our first true snowfall before November is finished.

Have a great Friday and take care.