Good Monday and Happy Halloween. The past several years have featured some downright nasty weather on Halloween. From the big wind machine to snowflakes… we’ve had some scary stuff. That is not the case today as the weather is picture perfect. We will talk about today’s nice and look long range to the November changes I’m going to keep beating you over the head with. 🙂
Highs will range from the upper 70s to near 80 in the far west and south, to the mid and upper 60s in the far north and northeast. Winds will be gusty with temps dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s by the end of trick or treat hours.
Near record highs return for Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be very gusty for the first few days of November.
We get a cold front to slide in from the northwest on Thursday. This will bring the threat for some showers and thunderstorms…
Winds will be very gusty as seasonal air blows in behind this front. The GFS highs for Friday…
The weekend weather looks really great with a healthy temp gradient setting up from west to east. Readings in the west should hit the 70s with 60s east.
As we continue to look deeper down the road, we find the same look for the middle and end of November. The indicies continue to point in a much colder direction…
That’s a heck of a +PNA being forecast to go along with a -NAO and a neutral look from the EPO. The strongly negative Arctic Oscillation is forecast to really go into the tank as we get deeper into November. That would indicate some serious blocking over the Arctic, and often signals a cold look in the eastern part of the country as we get into the winter season.
Given the above indicies, one would expect the models to keep latching on, and they are. Watch how the ridge goes up in the west, and blocking forms across Greenland and the Arctic, leading to a deepening trough in the east…
The illustration above is a textbook example of what the indicies show should happen. This continues to match up well with what the CFS weeklies have been cooking up for a while…
The operational GFS continues to show a substantial change right around next weekend…
A couple of points to reiterate:
- The changes start during week two of November, then progress from there for the rest of the month.
- The above setup can lead to an earlier than normal start to winter across Kentucky and much of the central and eastern part of the country.
- Last week, I mentioned how the current warm pattern resembles this same time around 1950. Record highs of Halloween were replaced by a historic blizzard and the coldest November temps ever recorded here on that Thanksgiving weekend. No two years are ever exactly alike, but there are some similarities to the current setup and forecast setup with that year.
- I’ve also found another year from that time frame that matches the current one. 1947 also saw the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)Â go from strongly positive in September to solidly negative in October. This year has surpassed that as the biggest September-October flip on record. For kicks… September 1947 produced 90 degree temps here. October 1947 had middle 80s into the second half of the month. November 1947 saw a switch to much colder with some snow for the middle and end of the month. The following winter produced brutal cold and snow in January and February.
- If you think I just throw things out for no reason at all, you are sorely mistaken. I do a ton of weather research. To the young weather folks out there… do your homework and learn (I’m still learning every single day) , and you will go places. It’s not all about computer models, that fancy math class from college or apps. It’s also not about going along with what everybody else is saying. Unfortunately, “consensus forecasting” is killing the weather world right now. You can be original and still be right, people. 🙂
Make it a great day and take care.
Chris,
On a non-weather note, I like the touch of humility. We all should be learning – something. None of us is the final word on anything. We all have room to grow – on everything. Nice words for an early morning… I appreciate your work.
Oh – and promise me it will snow soon! 🙂
Well said my friend!
Yep!
My grandfather, one of the smartest men I’ve ever known, was fond of saying that if you don’t learn something new everyday you might as well hang it up. Keep doing what you’re doing, Chris Bailey, and I’ll keep coming to you for my weather information.
I appreciate your hard work and research Chris. You are always my go to source for weather. I look forward to what this winter will bring. Happy Halloween to all and be safe with the little ones out tonight.
That is exactly the right pattern snow lovers want to see getting close to December ongoing. We have hah fantastic weather through October but I am one who does not like warm holiday weather like we had last year…hoping that we see some cold turkey and Christmas weather this year and some block buster storms before next Spring!
Thanks Chris! Nothing scary about today for sure except we have a lot of cloudy here in my part of the state, making it cooler than we had
hoped for today, but after all it is the end of October! Went to the football game Saturday afternoon in and wore shorts. Had I thought, I would have worn a sleeveless shirt! I am enjoying the weather when my heat or air doesn’t kick on. Makes me happy. I hope that our holiday weather is appropriate this year instead of being so doggone warm. Time will tell, I am sure. Have a great Monday everyone, and please be mindful of all the little goblins out on the streets tonight! Happy Halloween everyone!
Of particular note about the year 1947- Major flooding occurred in Clay Co and Leslie Co. on the Middle Fork & South Fork of the Ky River, as well as the Red Bird River. Many homes were washed away/damaged in both of these counties and many families depended on the Red Cross to provide shelter and food for many months to come.
OLD SCHOOL T GIVING and Xmas a coming!!! meaning cold and snow on ground hopefully!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You’re gonna do your usual flipflopping early.
After calculating the temperatures today along with tweaking what the temperature may be by midnight or so here at Louisville, the warmest October on record will be official by tomorrow morning, beating out the old record set in 1900 by about 0.1 degrees.
Lexington and Frankfort also finish with top ten warmest October.
Despite a very dry month, of the three stations above, only Frankfort might record a top ten driest October…just goes to show how dry October can really be.
Looks to me all the cold is bottled up in Eurasia..Really don’t like the look of the pacific right now also..Canada looks rather warm..Guess if we get a +PNA,,-AO..-NAO then cold has to make it down sometime..Just being a little cautious at the moment.. But the coming weeks look intriguing..