Saturday Evening Post

Good evening, folks. It’s been a busy day for your friendly weatherdude, so you only get the one extra update. 🙂 We are coming off a nice blast of arctic air that sent a few locations into the high single digits this morning. As it stands, none of the model forecasts were cold enough, and that goes from a week ago to yesterday.

That cold hangs on across the region tonight as some snow just misses us to the north. This can still drop some flurries or sleet across the north and northeast…

Temperatures on Sunday will slowly rise from south to north as a weak system moves in. Rain will develop later in the day, and with dry air in place, could begin as some sleet in the north.

Chilly rains then carry us into Monday before some of that tries to end as a flake Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Arctic air then seeps in here from the north late Tuesday into Wednesday. This should be accompanied by a streak of fast moving light snow heading from west to east…

euro

That will be falling into arctic air, so we will have to watch for a nice little fluff factor. With very little moisture needed, these systems can sometimes overachieve. Just look back to the snows we had Friday. Zero models showed flakes because they missed the arctic/dry nature of the snow.

That arctic air then settles in for the rest of the week as it spreads out in a west to east fashion. That type of a setup can sometimes lead to trouble when the next system moves in, and that appears to be the case by the end of the week.

Shallow arctic air in place with overrunning moisture can lead to a wintry mess or ice. Here’s the Canadian…

canadian-2

That shows has an ugly look and is backed up by the European Model. Notice how cold the surface temps are compared to the thickness values on the left…

euro-2

Warmer air aloft, cold air at the surface as precipitation moves in. That can spell some nasty stuff, and certainly bears watching.

This was really the only red flag about the winter that I threw up in the winter forecast this year. I didn’t go crazy with snow totals or bitter cold, but tried to draw attention to the ice potential likely to show up at times this winter. Here’s hoping that is not the case!!

The European then switches things to rain for a time, but crashes the undercutting cold back in here hours later…

euro-4

The model then shows the arctic air winning the battle…

euro-3

The Canadian at the same times is even colder, and likely too cold…

canadian

Did I just have the audacity to show computer models to the general public? The horror of such a thing! 😉

So the Canadian and European Models are pretty much marching to the beat of the same drum. The GFS had been consistently showing similar outcomes, but I really don’t know what the heck it’s doing right now with that model at the moment. It’s different from run to run.

I will see you guys for another update later tonight.


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17 Responses to Saturday Evening Post

  1. Jason says:

    Come on warm nose! Punch in here! Here’s hoping that warm air wins the battle.. A week without power is the last thing we need right before the holidays!

  2. Bjenks says:

    Things are going to get interesting later this week. Hope the cold air wins out and we get all snow. Of course we all know how that will play out.

    • Terry says:

      More likely to have the rain here in SE KY than the ice in that type of set-up, even though I want snow!

      Usually when Cental and west KY get bad ice storms, we get rain only in my neck of the woods but not always…interesting weather pattern and forecasting to continue.

    • BubbaG says:

      The more north, probably the more potential for trouble.

  3. EF5snowfall says:

    I predict not a flake anywhere in the state of Kentucky this winter.No ice either .Just plain rain for each storm system.

  4. pattyversailles says:

    We have cold temps no moisture for snow. We have moisture temps too high. Cold near the ground moisture aloft ICE!! It’s a vicious circle in Kentucky most every year.

    • Crystal In Pikeville says:

      Road trip KY weather center blog buddies all aboard.

    • Msd87 says:

      Spare a thought for us here in Tennessee. We need to see the models spitting out snow in southern Georgia five days out. Then with the north or north west trend we can be in business.

  5. Laura from London says:

    Thank you for showing us the computer models. I enjoy how you go beyond the basic weather forecast. I appreciate that you take the time everyday to give us an update. Kentucky is lucky to have you.

  6. John-Austin says:

    Please keep showing us the models Chris! It’s what makes this weather community fun, interesting and educational! I have learned so much over the many years of reading this blog daily and I have you to tahank for that! Keep doing what you’re doing because there are so many out there like myself that look forward to this blog each & every day.

    The haters are always going to hate so we may as well let them

  7. Whooooaaaaa with the “no snow” speak my fellow weather weirdo’s!!!! We are literally 10 days into the festive month of December’16, coming off of several seasons of solid snow-makers, and already experiencing single digit lows in Kentucky!?! Give Old Man Winter a chance. Three weeks ago it was still summer.

    To keep things in perspective, we live in Kentucky where the weather is much like our bourbon; full of spirit and excitement! It will snow this winter… in-fact, for many of us in the Commonwealth, it already has.

    http://www.journeyswithdad.com
    @journeyswithdad

    Thanks for the update Chris!

  8. Whooooaaaaa with the “no snow” speak my fellow weather weirdo’s!!!! We are literally 10 days into the festive month of December’16, coming off of several seasons of solid snow-makers, and already experiencing single digit lows in Kentucky!?! Give Old Man Winter a chance. Three weeks ago it was still summer.

    To keep things in perspective, we live in Kentucky where the weather is much like our bourbon; full of spirit and excitement! It will snow this winter… in-fact, for many of us in the Commonwealth, it already has.

    Thanks for the update Chris!

  9. kywildcat says:

    CMC comes in colder

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