Good Tuesday, everyone. The first few weeks of December have been colder than normal across our region, but the next week and change looks to be much, much colder. We have a couple of arctic shots on the move, and we are also tracking some winter weather.
The first touch of winter weather zips eastward today and can put down some light snow in the far northern parts of the state. Farther south, a very light mix and light rain will be possible at times…
Covington Cams
Temps will be all over the place with the north being much colder than the rest of the state. All the numbers drop in a hurry this evening as colder air seeps in.
The actual arctic front arrives later Wednesday with some flurries or light snow showers. Temperatures will tank by Wednesday night and Thursday morning with high single digits possible in the north, and 10-15 everywhere else. The wind chills will be way down there by Thursday morning…
Afternoon high temps on Thursday may not get out of the upper teens for some…
Imagine how much colder it would be with snow on the ground.
From there, we watch a complicated weekend setup with two systems to impact our weather. The first brings some overrunning mix later Friday before a temp surge and rain for Saturday. Another arctic front arrives Saturday night with sleet, freezing rain and some snow into Sunday. Here’s the Canadian…
Check out the temperature plunge Saturday evening into the wee hours of Sunday…
That is a serious arctic front. We can hit 60 degrees Saturday afternoon and evening then drop into the teens and 20s by Sunday morning.
The European Model looks very similar…
So does the GFS…
Sunday could be an interesting day with arctic air crashing in under a shield of precipitation!
That same arctic front then slams the brakes on just to our south and east, allowing for another storm system to develop. It’s early in the game, but this continues to show up as a winter weather maker for later Monday and Tuesday. Here’s the Canadian…
The GFS…
Once that goes by, we are in the days leading up to Christmas. The GFS is showing a healthy cold front with some snows possible by the middle of next week…
The same model run of the GFS sends this as a Christmas card…
That’s still 12 days away, but it’s within the range to start having some fun with the model forecasts for Christmas weekend.
I hope you’ve enjoyed another blowout post. I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.
Some interesting days ahead!
Not that I am complaining in this situation to come, I see a lot of cold rain for the far SE part of the state while the rest of the state on north and west look very interesting for nasty ice/mix!
This
Nobody likes snow more than me. But if there’s no decent snowfall by the end of this month with all this predicted cold air.
I say let’s move on to above-normal temperatures.
My thoughts exactly. All those models appear to show rain/mix then the dreaded backside flurries. Hopefully one of them, the cold air will catch up to before the rain moves away. On the plus side. At least we have some hope of Christmas snow this year. Last year was zero percent chance.
December isn’t a snowy month historically for Kentucky.
The models will waffle and I’ll take blueberries with extra syrup please. January will bode well for snow. Be patient and Chris will give us good news later in the season.
Not that you can actually just “move on to above normal temperatures” or anything……
That certainly is a Christmas card model run. I hope it keeps that look in the coming days!
Sunday’s forecast of arctic air crashing under precipitation.
That’s an ice storm. ☹️
Are we going to keep spiking in advance of every system as it pulls moisture from the south all winter? Cold rain is miserable.
The old timers say that it warms up to snow. They understood that it often took a southerly flow to grab some Gulf moisture in order to get meaningful precip. If the cold temps can meet up with it, snow it is!
Christmas card turns sympathy card. So far out equals disappointment usually. Ice. Cold rain. Frigid temps. Repeat.
Snow snow where art thou?
Not taking to much stock on the weather channel forecast, but they do have part of western,ky and north part of ky getting some snow this weekend storm. Looks like our best chance is next Monday or Tuesday and again we may get tease as usual.
Artic air is hard to move out especially when you have repeated pushes of it and that is being forecasted. Remember any snow that falls in December is bonus snow. If it rains oh well, we need it as all of the state is still in a drought. Snow beckons snow so the Xmas week systems could be real promising. Love that the end of fall is bringing winter like weather. Hope winter stays cold and snowy. Thanks Chris for the update.
How can you trust any model they say somthing completely different each run.what a joke.
Thanks Chris. You bring out the “S” word and the blog goes nuts! ITs still a long way from Christmas, and we have several days before we think of anything like that! I’m just going to take it one day at a time and see what develops.. 😉 (Hopefully low pressure, with some snow) I have to agree with another poster that we rarely get any snow to speak of in December. When we do it usually is an over achiever. But that is unusual. I just cant get my head around the fact that this year is all but over! When did that happen?
Anyway, have a great Tuesday everyone, and thanks for the update Chris. looking forward to the next one.
We are always hear on the blog, just quite until the S word is spoken. Right now the only S word falling in most of KY is at the end of the word rainS. Can’t wait till the S is in front of now!!!!
The GFS has been painting a picture of snow for the region for weeks now. That’s what the GFS does, I’m pretty sure according to the GFS 2 weeks ago we are all suppose to have a foot of snow. The SE ridge is absolutely going to be a thorn in your side if your a snow lover.
Prelude what do you mean by the SE ridge? Thanks!
SE ridge is a ridge of high pressure located SE part of the US, basically likes to throw warm air our way. Thus the battle zone as usual occurs in our next of the woods. As most things some years the SE ridge is stronger than other years. SE ridge can really hamper potential snows for our region at times.
Or ice with the battling of the cold air
Bah humbug…I’m still holding to above normal temperatures Christmas weekend. Analogs and teleconnection data outweigh the computer models, imo
I see that as well
might not know whats going to happen where until the short range models come into range..and even then its not a given
Oh how soon people forget that when we had those two monster storms within 3 weeks, Lexington totaled 40 inches….and this didn’t start until mid feb I believe. Prior to that, I don’t think we had much of any snow.
I remember the first storm it actually stayed 12 degrees during the entire storm
I am NOT a fan of extreme cold. Ug…
This is looking like the same old story we have seen for several years now. System looks like snow, sleet, ice a week out….moves in as rain, warm air wins out, followed by backside flurries with intense cold shots when system moves out. I think we will experience this a few more times before cold air overrides the warm and produces snow for KY. This is the pattern and I don’t see it being broken anytime soon.
Agreed. Where else can you go from teens high temps to 60’s in 48 hours or less? That’s called living in our neck of the woods in Winter. I think the only thing to compare would be the Chinook winds in the Rockies.
I’m not trying to push us toward spring too quickly but for the spring weather lovers Paducah NWS is asking spotters to monitor Sat and Sat night for potential severe activity….ah, warms me up just reading it.