Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the all important forecast for Christmas weekend, and the slightly less important forecast for New Year’s.
Nothing has changed leading up to this weekend. Rain (a touch of sleet north?)ย moves in this evening and will be heavy at times tonight and early Saturday. The action becomes more showery for Christmas Eve and Day as temps climb. Highs on Christmas can hit the 60s for many.
Similar temps will be noted Monday as a cold front gets ready to move in. A band of moderate rain and some thunder will sweep in here along that front. Decent rain totals are likely from Tonight through Monday night…
A stronger cold front marches into town by Thursday and brings the return of winter. Colder temps take over and some snows may fly during this time.
New Year’s Eve and Day continue to send out an interesting signal. Blocking gets established by this time as the EPO, WPO and NAO are forecast to go negative at the same time.
The end result on the current model runs…
GFS
GFS Parallel…
Canadian…
I will have another update for you later today. Until then, track the rain in from the west…
Enjoy the day and take care.
The final result will likely be the Canadian, if we are lucky enough to even get the “left over” snow.
More likely all three of them will be bogus.
A White New Years? Thanks Chris!
Hopefully winter will actually show.
Loving the Grinch Storm
I would bet on the Canadian it looks like the one with mostly rain. With the dreaded backside flurries. Northwest/backside flow snow hasn’t been worth mentioning for a few years now.
I know, right? It seems like the lake effect up slope snows have been almost nonexistent as the wind set up has been more of a WNW instead of the NW flow that we need.
Stay the course CB! Don’t “fall” for the models ๐ Your outlooks for the previous two winters were good. Still seems your outlook this winter for not a lot of snow, but more of a chance for big ice is the right call.
Watch our for Lucy’s football! Is it coincidence you and Charlie Brown have the same initials? Yeah, but still ๐
Been drinking the eggnog already ? ๐
Backside snow is imaginary snow!
At least some of the teleconnections are starting to get on board to support a snowier chance. I’m still waiting on a more definable signal from the AO, which is still running positive but trending downward some.
Tease! But I do like the blocking teleconnections. Hopefully it we can get a sustained cold spell out of it and winter will finially make an appearance.
Merry Christmas to CB and KWC followers.
That particular run of the GFS has most of Kentucky buried under 3-6″ with pockets of 8″ of snow…But we all know how these computer models likes beating the hornets nest..
Another yawn I’m afraid, for New Years. I’d say the Canadian will be about right, rain. Not falling for the “potential” “interesting look” from old man winter this time. Bold prediction…bout 2 days out all 3 models will miraculously agree with rain…haha..curse you old man winter