Arctic Cold and Snow Update

Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. We are about to go into a very cold period that will likely put snow on the ground across much of our part of the world. I should have a first call map out later today, but I wanted to drop by for a quick update on what the forecast models look like.

As arctic air surges in here tonight and Wednesday, some snow flurries will be possible. From there, we watch a disturbance pass across the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will have a band of light snow with it and it’s likely to put down accumulations.

The past few snowfall runs from the GFS…

gfs-snow

gfs-snow-2

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles have some potential…

gfs-snow-3

The WPC has even placed eastern Kentucky in a slight risk for 4″+ of snow through Friday morning…

hpc

I think you could probably extend that into eastern Tennessee, too. For the record, I do expect slick travel will lead to some cancellations and delays Thursday and/or Friday.

One thing to watch for with this, is some enhancement of the snow taking across the central and east by Thursday night into Friday morning. The Canadian shows this…

canadian

The European Model also has this, and then shows a very close call with the late Friday-Saturday storm system…

euro-2

That brushes southeastern Kentucky with some snows, and the Canadian does the same thing…

canadian-2

It really would not take much model correction to pull that storm farther to the north and west, and that’s what we will watch for as we get within 72 hours of it.

Regardless, the temps late this week through the weekend look frigid. Single digit lows are possible from Saturday through Monday. The Canadian continues to be the coldest of the bunch with the low temps…

canadian-3

Even if we add several degrees onto those numbers, it’s still bitterly cold!

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

49 Responses to Arctic Cold and Snow Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB! Taking what info we appear to have now, seems more likely Thursday is the main snow chance rather than the weekend for most of us.

    I can not recall the relative positional set-up for last winter’s hit, but do recall it was way south and then went way NW. I do however recall you were already discussing threat chances for that one.

    Again, no ice discussion IMO is a win! πŸ™‚

  2. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger’s been thinking for two days now that the Thursday event will bring more snow (much more?) to the vast majority of Kentuckians than the weekend storm. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Rodger in Dodger

  3. Tom says:

    Still a long way out…not yet getting excited here. We’ve seen these bust before…and also overachieve.

  4. Bjenks says:

    1-2 for Thursday for the Metro Lou then dry and cold. If second storm decides to change course that would be great. I would love a couple days in a snowglobe.

    Thanks for the update CB. Hope the models all come together overnight on a bigger system pulling more North.

    • Prelude says:

      1-2 seems fair only thing I’m somewhat leary about is the dry air in place on Thursday do not want a virga scenario.

      • BubbaG says:

        Sometimes set-ups like this as mentioned can create a “snow begets snow” flow. Still seems an epic NW shift to take place for the weekend…. That said, the system is not really in place to do any shifting. Models could be way south in error.

  5. Jason says:

    Thanks for the update!

  6. Snowmageddon says:

    Caught Henry Margusity video at AccuWeather and he believes the models are too far south. His thinking is the heavier band of snow will be KY and southern WV. Stay tuned.

  7. Cold Rain says:

    well to be honest all models except GFS has shifted NW some..How big of system we get who knows at this point…Hopefully they go back showing what the GFS had a couple days ago..

  8. Mike says:

    I am planning on a West Virginia (Cranberry Wilderness Area…between Richwood and Snowshoe) backpacking trip next weekend (1/13 – 1/15) … Hoping for cold and snow covered mountains. Any WV folks out there have thoughts on my chances?

  9. Frustrated says:

    I moved to the wrong dang place. I live in Covington and it very rarely snows enough to amount to a dang thing. Last year when the rest of the state was getting huge snows, we might have gotten a couple inches. From those maps (which I know aren’t to be taken literally) it looks like we’ll get our typical, oh look, it’s flurrying and blowing around nonsense. Like everything about this place but the weather!

  10. Josh says:

    Sorry guys i can’t see the NW shift happening. A High will always beat out a Low. Unless something drastic changes when it hits the upper air network… its a wrap and nothing good in the next 10 to 14 days.. Let’s hope Feb is nasty.

  11. Brian says:

    I no longer see a link to subscribe to the blog. Can somebody tell me if that’s still available? My poor old refresh button can’t handle this winter weather.

  12. Christopher says:

    I feel our sledding chances dwindling. I knew I probably jumped the gun on getting the kids sleds. Guess I’ll hope Feb is better. The long-term for January doesn’t look too promising. Bummer.

    • Lucy says:

      Not sure where you live, but don’t give up hope yet. Wait until Wednesday night at the earliest to get more accurate predictions. Even seasoned mets can be wrong (not talking about CB here), but I recall a number of years back seeing a met on tv state that we would get a light dusting, and 24 hours later, we had a huge storm.

  13. Winter Lover says:

    Thanks for all you do Chris!! Getting ready to start our snow dance here in Ashland. πŸ˜‰

  14. Lucy says:

    I remember last winter looking at national weather service predictions about 24 hours out from what was expected to be a huge snowstorm and then seeing a 90% chance go to 20%. What a disappointment. Here’s to hoping that all snow lovers get something this winter.

  15. Prelude says:

    NWS in Louisville on board with Thursday’s system. A general 1-2 inch snowfall with 3 inch amounts not out of the question wherever banding might occur.

  16. Prelude says:

    I think CB is playing cautiously on Thursday disturbance. This system has potential for overachieving I think and isolated 4 maybe 5 inch amount would not surprise me.

  17. Prelude says:

    Winter Weather Advisory is a given but I would not be surprised to see someone get a snowfall that would qualify in the low end winter storm criteria

  18. jim b says:

    Yawn meter holding steady at a 10…1 to 2 inch death for some, have no confidence whatso ever that the weekend track will change

  19. EF5snowfall says:

    Come on guy’s most local Mets calling for a dusting at most.atmospheric dryness will be a large factor.

  20. bm says:

    looking forward to next CB update maybe he’ll have a better idea what’s in store. I got a gut feeling we may get more than what’s been advertise if it matures.

  21. EF5snowfall says:

    You guys are wishcasting.I want snow but really doubt.we get more than a very light dusting or just a scat snow shower.what I call a EF0 snowfall

  22. Blizzardtim says:

    Well today’s GFS 6 12 and 18 z all showing southern snowstorm in GA.. Hopefully a NW shift in tomorrow models

  23. EF5snowfall says:

    Jeez I’ll only say from now on that a good 5-8 Inc he of snow is possible for every event

  24. EF5snowfall says:

    Lol

  25. Muddy says:

    Let it snows already!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *