A Busy Setup For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another bitterly cold day out there, but my focus is shifting quickly to a wild setup for later next week. It’s a setup that put Kentucky squarely on the fence between heavy rains and a big winter weather event.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

The day starts with some flurries and snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky. This can put down a fresh coating in some areas…

Highs today will stay in the teens in the central and east, with the 20s in the west. Winds will make it feel much colder.

Clouds will continue to thicken into Monday and we will have to watch for some flakes trying to fly as temps slowly recover.

Showers move in for Tuesday and that action may start out as some frozen stuff early on. This is ahead of a wet weather maker into Wednesday.

This will then take us into a volatile setup for the end of the week into the start of the weekend. A HUGE temperature gradient will set up across our region. Spring temps will battle another surge of arctic air spreading out to our north. This combination will place Kentucky right on the fence and that can often lead to trouble.

Notice how the Canadian goes from rain and thunder to ice and snow very quickly…


The GFS Parallel has a threatening look…


The GFS can’t make its mind up on significant ice and snow or heavy rain and potential flooding. The last two runs of the model…



I could see any option working out with this one, but it’s very early in the game to get too specific. It’s going to be interesting to track all this in the coming days.

I will update things later today. Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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63 Responses to A Busy Setup For The Week Ahead

  1. Virgil says:

    Sounds like 2002-2003 winter with flooding rains..

  2. Lucy says:

    Come on cold, win out on this one. You can do it!

  3. SHAAK says:

    Looks like the potential for some significant ice.

  4. Nicholasville Ken says:

    I’ve seen this movie before. This is the part where I go fill up my gas cans for my generator. I HATE ice storms.

    • Dottie W. says:

      Me too. 🙁

    • TennMark says:

      My wife and I have considered a generator. My wife as a kid experienced the 1994 ice storm in Bowling Green with no power and heat (I experienced the 2009 event in Evansville IN although for the most part my power somehow stayed on). But with good home generators costing four figures, what are experiences people have with smaller more portable generators?

      • GW says:

        My experience is if you have a kerosene or propane heater, a propane cook stove,and oil lamps you will be fine. Put your perishables in a cooler on the porch. Get a deck of cards, board games, and some paperback novels and settle in. You can heat water on a kerosene heater or outdoor grille. The only thing you might need a generator for in the winter is your well pump and any medical equipment.

        • Melva says:

          I have lovely memories of my parents having a stove they’d turn on when the power went out…they only ever turned it on except for power outages in winter. They’d also light some oil lamps.

          My mother would cook on it, heat water, dry clothes in front of it, make coffee, all kinds of things. I remember even bathing and washing my hair and drying my hair over the stove! Lol

          We’d all sit around in front of it and keep warm, reading or talking. At night when going to bed we’d all leave our doors open a crack and the heat from it was so warm and comforting.

          Wonderful memories. I like generators too, but nothing beats the good old fashioned way.

          • TennMark says:

            During the infamous Blizzard of 1993, my siblings, parents, pets and I made good use of the glowing warmth and light from the otherwise rarely used fireplace at our Morristown TN home. Sure it was inconvenient, but it did bring us together in more ways than one. It was actually fun listening together to the 1993 SEC mens basketball tournament on battery radios. Doing without tv for a while does no harm!

      • Oh Hail No! says:

        I also lived through the ’94 Ice Storm in BG…it was a nightmare! Temperatures in the TEENS with rain falling hour after hour. Seemed like it would never end.

      • Nicholasville Ken says:

        We went thru the 2009 ice storm. We didn’t have power for about 5 days. Our basement flooded and ruined everything (no electricity, no sump pump). This is when I told my wife we are not doing this again. I bought a small (3700 watt) generator from Lowe’s and an isolation switch. I can run my sump pump, fridge, most lights, and tv. I have had to use it a few times due to storms. Highly recommend it!

  5. Oh oh here’s CB bold ice event that he mention during his winter outlook. Hopefully either colder air will win in order be all snow.

    • Prelude says:

      No no no you don’t want the cold air to win out in this scenario it would be freezing rain scenario more than it would be snow.

      • Jimmie says:

        Agreed. There’s no way cold air winning this particular fight leads to a good outcome for Kentucky.

        • TennMark says:

          If it was all cold air, snow would be relatively ok.

          But in the upcoming scenario, of course it would be those stupid warm layers mixing into the cold that could bring on sleet or far worse, freezing rain 🙁 .

  6. Bjenks says:

    We do NOT want the cold to win out on this setup. Would rather have 40’s and rain than 32 and ice.

  7. Cold Rain says:

    This is the the ice output for the GFS for the map CB posted..Needless to say Ky would be history..


  8. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Thanks Chris I would rather have the dreaded cold rain instead of the ice too.I am even ready for a little warm up just to thaw then bring back the snow.Have a nice day.

  9. Christopher says:

    I’m hoping for (as the poster’s name above says) a COLD RAIN with this one! NO ice!!

    • Coffeelady says:

      Thanks Chris. You’ve certainly given us a tease to start the week! And something to debate! As much as I would like s good snow, I will always take a cold rain over ice any day! Have a great Sunday afternoon all!

  10. EF5snowfall says:

    If you live in the northern half of kentucky and southern half of Ohio invest in a generator. Central and northern Ohio tune up the snow blower. Historical ice possible for southern ohio.

  11. jim b says:

    Yawn meter at about 8.5 on this one…looks like a lot of rain to me.

  12. B H says:

    Keep the Ice away. Several years ago here in Southern Ohio we had a bad ice storm. I lived in the country and the pine trees were popping like a shotgun going off when they broke in half. Also when they hit the ground the pine needles went every where. No electric for over a week.

  13. Turmoil Tim says:

    Those maps are still in model fantasy land. Anything more than 48 hours out in the winter is for entertainment value. It might happen but don’t get excited yet.

    • Prelude says:


    • Christopher says:

      I kind of agree on this one. Seems things far out on these models send out a panic. Then closer to the event things “settle down”. Hoping that’s the case here. Let’s wait until closer to the event before we all panic.

      Going to buy a generator now.

  14. fbm tim says:

    well i better keep an eye on this one

  15. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Two Rodger thoughts on Sunday morning: 1) He suspects KY will get more rain than ice and 2) This type of setup with a front wavering north/south and rounds of precip riding along it have in the past brought BIG winter events to our part of the world. As Mr Bailey says, will be interesting/fun to watch. Rodger in Dodger

  16. Snowbunny says:

    Is any part of Tennessee in this storm maker?

    • TennMark says:

      Anywhere roughly from Texas to Ohio, including Tennessee. As others have touched on, it’s very early so things can (and will) change……. hopefully for the best (little or no freezing rain), but be prepared for at least some chance for significant icing.

      Nashville, Memphis and other areas still has raw memories of the devastating 1994 ice event. I experienced the 2009 ice storm in Evansville IN and that was bad enough, although areas just to the south of Evansville were even harder hit.

  17. LOUsnoluvr says:

    Never boring here. I’ll take my Weather Waffles with blueberries please!

    • Kat says:

      What does it look like for southern IN/Lou metro?

      • ashle says:

        Who knows for sure yet, too early to tell. The models can and will change, probably a good bit between now and then. We had bad ice here in LOU metro in 2009. Plus lots of snow on top of that. Don’t think we’re talking that type of scenario here this time.Better to be prepared for anything around here.

      • ashlie hisle says:

        Who knows for sure yet, too early to tell. The models can and will change, probably a good bit between now and then. We had bad ice here in LOU metro in 2009. Plus lots of snow on top of that. Don’t think we’re talking that type of scenario here this time.Better to be prepared for anything around here.

  18. Jimmie says:

    The GFS 6z run looks not quite as ominous for Kentucky. Hopefully warm air wins this battle.

    • BubbaG says:

      This. Some folks want cold air to win. We want a warm air winner if Kentucky is the fence for the outlooked system.

      • Prelude says:

        One thing is 100% for sure models are going to struggle very badly with this setup come late week. That is a guarantee. Another guarantee, it’s going to be and get real soggy no matter how you slice it or dice it.

  19. Jimbo says:

    Hopefully no ice, I think the warm air will win out in our area it usually does. All the weather sites have the whole country except the northwest, way above normal the rest of the month.

  20. Melva says:

    I’ve never seen an ice storm..pictures look lovely, but I know they are so dangerous for many,

    Hoping to have at least one more day like last Thursday. We left work early, picked up the grandbaby, then spent the day drinking hot chocolate and watching movies…went sledding Friday. What a blessed weekend we’ve sure had. Love a good snow day!

    • Christinajade says:

      I live in downtown Paducah and we were without power for 9 days in 2009. My neighbor has a wood stove, so we had 4 families staying there to keep warm and cook. The kids all played board games by candlelight, and we ate everything out of everyone’s freezers! While we enjoyed the time and felt like we had gone back to the 1800’s – a lot of people that weren’t as prepared suffered. It was amazingly beautiful, though.

  21. Troy says:

    Da*#ed if we do, da*#ed if we dont as they say…yet more flooding rain on the way or damaging ice. At this point, both are very bad though the rain is the lesser of two evils. We are once again in a lose lose situation.

    Bright spot is models now all agree (though at this far out, take that as a grain of salt) ice is north of Ohio river. The fence is a great thing in this particular case.

  22. Rob says:

    When is the ice going to occur? Around Tuesday or around Thursday and Friday? Also wont the ice just melt the next day due to the higher temps were are suppose to get, according to other weather sources.

    • Rob says:

      Or is it not this week, but next

    • Melva says:

      From what I gather, perhaps this weekend? And it’s not a for sure thing..something that could possibly happen but more than likely won’t, we will probably get the rain..and many are hoping the ice avoids us as it is dangerous and more severe than snow

  23. Rich says:

    I hope we all have a significant snow of a least 6 inches of snow!!

  24. MarkLex says:

    Good – move the ice storm up into Ohio – PLEASE – cold rain = no damage – no drama – no power outages for week/s
    Some people have never seen ice storms – other than their beauty (they are very beautiful), but it stops there.

    Back in 2002/2003 I was working at Verizon. A lady there had just transferred from New Mexico – she had never seen one before. I remember her saying it was the wildest thing she ever saw. It actually was one of the wildest weather events in my life. You are literally cut off from EVERYTHING. You feel so helpless and frustrated – it’s scary. Once in my life was enough – no more thank you

  25. Prelude says:

    I guess it’s by perspective. I went through the major one that hit the commonwealth. I was out of power for 7 days. I don’t know if I considerate it scary to me it was a huge messy inconvenience pain in the butt that left a lot of damage. I won’t argue that

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